This year’s Day of Holocaust Remembrance (Yom HaShoah) was marked by the unfortunate decision of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to announce the suspension of the automatic renewal of the defense memorandum with Israel, as reported by Meloni herself on the sidelines of the Vinitaly wine fair in Verona. The reason for such a decision? The “ongoing situation in the Middle East.”

The move immediately sparked mixed reactions, with the pro-Palestinian left, Islamists, and even the historically anti-Semitic and anti-American far right celebrating the news, while many right-wing voters with Atlanticist and pro-Israeli positions expressed concern and opposition to the decision (including many Meloni voters who expressed disappointment on social media).

Meloni’s decision was also praised by Hamas, which called it: “A step in the right direction” amid the ongoing attacks in Gaza and escalating regional tensions. As reported by the website Palinfo: “In a press release on Wednesday, Hamas said the move represents an important development that could help deter what it described as Israel’s continued violations of international law and human rights in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. The Movement urged Italy and other countries to expand international isolation measures, including halting military cooperation and withdrawing political support.”

The agreement, which outlines a framework for defense cooperation, including the exchange of military equipment and technological research between the armed forces, was originally set to be renewed every five years. It entered into force on April 13, 2016.

However, it is essential to clarify certain aspects to provide a clearer overview of the matter, highlighting several key factors. Firstly, it is a memorandum, not a defense agreement, between the two countries.

As the Israeli Foreign Ministry explained, there is no such thing as a “defense agreement” between Italy and Israel but rather “a memorandum of understanding from many years ago that has never contained any substantive content and will not affect Israel’s security.”

And, not only will Meloni’s decision not have an impact on Israel’s security but, on the other hand, it will damage Italy’s national security since it will cut Rome out of important technological assets and programs that Israel is a world leader in. Tools that are essential for State security.

Ashkan Rostami, founding member of the Institute for a New Middle East, explained it well: “The failure to renew the agreement with Israel has a concrete effect: it reduces Italy’s access to technologies, industrial cooperation, and shared operational capabilities…We are talking about a memorandum that, since 2003, has structured concrete cooperation on military technological development, advanced defense systems, and operational interoperability between two allied countries.”

The move to terminate the memorandum is not the first unfortunate decision taken in recent times by the Meloni government, as last month, on March 27, the Italian government itself denied permission to land an American military aircraft bound for the Middle East at the Sigonella base, generating questions and criticism from American politics and mainstream media; from the Washington Post to CNN, from The Hill to Newsweek. Political commentator and analyst Guy Benson, for example, declared himself “particularly disappointed by the Italians” during an appearance on Fox News on April 2.

It must be highlighted that just a few weeks before, on March 6, the Iranian regime’s ambassador to Italy, Mohammad Reza Sabbouri, during an interview with the Italian Rete 4 channel, said that Italy was “a friendly country”, but warned Rome about the consequences if Rome were to allow the United States to use its military bases for operations related to the conflict. Was it a friendly warning? A threat? Whatever it was, the timing was disastrous and it must be noted that the Italian Foreign Ministry never recalled the Iranian ambassador for such a problematic statement. Such a move may have very well be perceived by the regime and its supporters as a sign of weakness from the Italian government.

As a matter of fact, relations with Trump have also worsened, and Meloni’s criticism of the American President for his verbal attacks on the Pope is only an extremely partial factor, because the real issue is Iran.

As reported on April 15 by the New York Times: “Trump, clearly jilted, lashed out at Ms. Meloni, saying in an interview with an Italian newspaper on Tuesday that he hadn’t talked to her “in a long time,” was vexed by her lack of participation in the war in Iran and was “shocked by her,” adding, “I thought she was brave, but I was wrong.” He responded to her “unacceptable” criticism by snapping, “She’s the one who’s unacceptable.” On Wednesday, he added in a television interview that with Italy, “we do not have the same relationship.”

Moreover, to collect another piece of the puzzle, it is worth highlighting the statement made by the Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani shortly before departing for a State-visit to China, calling for the safeguard of Italian national interest:

“We have only two preconditions: our conscience and Italy’s interests. For the rest, we have worked and continue to work to maintain the best possible relationship with the United States administration, whether Democratic or Republican.”

What is therefore Italy’s true national interest? Perhaps not disappointing the Iranian regime to the point of putting at stake the relations with historical allies and partners such as the United States and Israel? If yes, why? What are the links between Italy and the Iranian regime? An aspect surely worth further digging into.

What would be the consequences once the Khomeinist regime in Iran were to fall? Italy will find itself left empty-handed, with its credibility severely undermined and demonstrating a lack of foresight on a geopolitical-strategic level.

As explained by Rostami: “In the current context, supporting the United States against the Islamic regime in Iran and supporting the Iranian people in their internal opposition is not just a moral stance, but a long-term strategic choice. This is because a free and democratic Iran would represent a natural economic and political partner for Italy, a pillar of regional stability, and an opportunity for energy and industrial cooperation. Those who position themselves today will build relationships tomorrow. Ambiguity, however, does not create diplomatic space. It creates irrelevance. Therefore, clear and strategic decisions are expected from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.”

In conclusion, Meloni’s short-sighted decisions are mostly causing harm to her credibility, that of her party, the coalition and Italy’s credibility with its allies; if she is willing to move in that direction not to upset a regime that is slaughtering the Iranian people, launching missiles to neighboring countries and exporting terrorism on a global scale, then there is a lot to ponder on. The Meloni-led government is most likely presenting itself as weak, rather than as “following national interest”.

Last but not least, it is a paradox how the Meloni government on the one hand claims to want to fight Islamist extremism at a domestic level while at the same time being very careful not to upset a regime that is the main exporter of extremism and terrorism globally.

Will all this have an impact on the upcoming 2027 national elections for Meloni’s party? Most likely, yes, and not positively. Is Lega party, historically the most pro-Israel party in Italy and Europe, willing to follow Meloni’s forein policy line? That remains to be seen.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)