When Geopolitics Hits the Bill |
Since February 28, 2026, the date of the open changeover in the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the crisis has changed its nature. It is no longer just military. It is no longer just regional. It has become energetic, inflationary, and social. On 2 March, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran transformed a strategic conflict into a global economic shock. It is always at this moment that geopolitics becomes real: when they leave the operational maps to enter service stations, gas bills, transport costs, and, very quickly, food prices.
It is necessary to start from a simple but decisive fact: Ormuz is not a symbol. It is an artery. In 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, flows through this strait accounted for more than a quarter of global maritime oil trade, about one fifth of global consumption of oil and petroleum products, as well as about one fifth of global LNG trade. In other words, when Hormuz gets stuck, it’s not just the Gulf that wavers. It is the energy mechanics of globalization that is disrupting. And this mechanism, contrary to a very European illusion, does not stop at the borders of the Middle East.
Many, however, continue to reason as if the shock were far away. It is a classic mistake. Yes, Asia is the first line. In 2025, about 80% of the oil and petroleum products transiting through Ormuz were destined for Asia. For gas, the dependence is even clearer: nearly 90% of LNG volumes exported through the strait went to Asian markets, and these flows accounted for about 27% of Asian LNG imports. This means that China, India, Japan, or South Korea are receiving the full brunt of the shock. But this does not mean that Europe is protected. The International Energy Agency has already warned that oil disruptions in the Middle East will begin to weigh on the European economy in April, notably through tensions over diesel and kerosene.
It is here that many are mistaken about the nature of the problem. We still talk too often about the ‘price of a barrel,’ as if everything boils down to a curve on a screen. In reality, the shock is much broader. He is oil, gas, logistics, insurance, and psychological. In March 2026, the tariffs of very large oil tankers leaving the Middle East to Asia reached their highest level since at least 2005. Cargoes are becoming scarcer, insurers are increasing the risk, shipping routes are tightening, and the market is beginning to pay not only for the real shortfall but above all for the anticipation of future shortfalls. This is exactly how a geopolitical crisis becomes a cost of living crisis.
Markets, on the other hand, never wait for the total breakdown to panic. They price first the risk, then only the shortage. On 2 April, the WTI closed at 111.54 dollars and the Brent at 109.03 dollars after the announcement of new US attacks against Iran. J.P. Morgan now estimates that oil could rise between 120 and 130 dollars in the short term and exceed 150 dollars if the Ormuz disturbance extends until mid-May. We are therefore not in a simple speculative episode. We are facing a global geopolitical taxation, politically invisible but perfectly concrete economically.
The most important thing is perhaps elsewhere: it’s not only the motorists who pay. The real nerve of the real economy is diesel. It is he who transports goods, feeds the logistics chains, increases industrial costs, and ends up contaminating prices in supermarkets. Reuters already notes that US gasoline has exceeded $4 per gallon, with projections at more than $5 if the blockage persists; diesel could exceed $6 in the coming weeks. In other words, the energy shock always starts with the reservoir, but it ends up throughout the price structure. The US Federal Reserve itself warns that a sustained energy surge would complicate a return to 2% inflation and weigh on growth.
The most fragile countries are already showing what an energy war actually means. On 2 April, Pakistan raised the price of diesel by 54.9% and that of gasoline by 42.7%, explaining that it could no longer absorb the international shock. This is not a peripheral detail. It is the advanced laboratory of what happens when geopolitics hits importing economies under budgetary constraints. And even in Europe, the first signs are appearing: in Germany, harmonized inflation jumped to 2.8% in March, driven notably by a 7.2% rise in energy prices, with already the fear of a shift from energy shock towards transport costs, then towards the more diffuse prices of the economy.
One must therefore read this war for what it really is. Not just a confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Not just a military duel around Hormuz. But the brutal demonstration that a strait, a few strikes, nervous insurers, and interrupted energy flows are enough to reintroduce into developed democracies a truth that many wanted to forget: prosperity remains suspended by physical vulnerabilities. The digital, financial, and postmodern world still relies on oil, gas, tankers, straits, and maritime routes.
The great irony is there. For years, the West has talked about transition, resilience, diversification, and energy security. And yet all it takes is a war in the right place for everything to return: inflation, market anxiety, budgetary arbitrations, and social anger. Geopolitics has never disappeared. It is simply waiting for the right chokepoint to remind that it still commands. In Iran, it does not only hit the armies. It has already begun to impact the bills.