When Geopolitics Hits the Bill |
Since February 28, 2026, the date of the open changeover in the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the crisis has changed its nature. It is no longer just military. It is no longer just regional. It has become energetic, inflationary, and social. On 2 March, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran transformed a strategic conflict into a global economic shock. It is always at this moment that geopolitics becomes real: when they leave the operational maps to enter service stations, gas bills, transport costs, and, very quickly, food prices.
It is necessary to start from a simple but decisive fact: Ormuz is not a symbol. It is an artery. In 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, flows through this strait accounted for more than a quarter of global maritime oil trade, about one fifth of global consumption of oil and petroleum products, as well as about one fifth of global LNG trade. In other words, when Hormuz gets stuck, it’s not just the Gulf that wavers. It is the energy mechanics of globalization that is disrupting. And this mechanism, contrary to a very European illusion, does not stop at the borders of the Middle East.
Many, however, continue to reason as if the shock were far away. It is a classic mistake. Yes, Asia is the first line. In 2025, about 80% of the oil and petroleum products transiting through Ormuz were destined for Asia.........