After Donald Trump’s remarks on Europe and even earlier after J.D. Vance’s speech in the security conference in Münich: The question now haunts public debate: do our leaders truly believe war is coming, or are we witnessing political maneuvers born of a lack of real means? Between alarmist rhetoric, talk of a “state of emergency,” rumors surrounding Article 16 in France, and a growing number of pre-war signals, the continental climate is becoming increasingly electrified.

At a moment when the so-called “coalition of the willing” (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) is stepping up meetings with the Ukrainian president; when the French chief of staff speaks of “sacrificing our children”; when survival kits are being distributed; and when the French president refers to a “wartime situation,” the European Commission has suddenly adopted the same register. Mouthpiece or unwitting relay? The movement appears above all to be aligning itself with the coalition’s line: the continuation of the war as the only possible path.

1. Bypassing the European framework to “save Ukraine”

As Ukraine flirts with bankruptcy, Ursula von der Leyen is working to mobilize Russian central bank assets frozen in Belgium—an initiative that is explosive from a legal, diplomatic, and political standpoint.

1.1 The “state of emergency” as a legal key

The Commission is exploring an unexpected idea: invoking a European state of emergency—despite the fact that such a status exists only… for Ukraine. The EU itself is not facing any financial crisis that would justify a suspension of rules, as the ECB has pointed out. But the objective is clear: to open the door to exceptional mechanisms that are normally out of reach.

1.2 Turning Ukraine........

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