The Likud primaries of August 17 were not simply an internal party contest. They were a referendum on the direction of the Israeli right after four of the most consequential years in the history of the State of Israel. Since the last election, Israel has endured October 7, the longest war in its history, fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen, unprecedented internal political division, a battle over judicial reform, an unresolved fight over Haredi military service, a hostage crisis, economic pressure, international isolation and an increasingly hostile global environment.

Likud members therefore were not simply choosing politicians. They were choosing which version of the Israeli right should lead the country into the next era. And the provisional results contain a very clear message. The Likud membership has rewarded politicians associated with security, judicial reform, nationalism, strong government and ideological confrontation. At the same time, several veteran ministers who entered the primaries as major national figures have fallen substantially. As of the morning after the vote, with roughly 80 percent of polling stations counted, the provisional nationwide order stood approximately as follows:

The exact order may still move before the final count is certified. In addition, Benjamin Netanyahu remains number one as Likud leader, while reserved places and representation slots will substantially rearrange the final Knesset list.

Eli Cohen The Biggest Winner

Eli Cohen emerging at the top of the nationwide primary is significant. Cohen has quietly accumulated one of the broadest ministerial resumes inside Likud. He has served as foreign minister, economy minister, intelligence minister and, most recently, energy and infrastructure minister. He sits in the security cabinet and has consistently positioned himself as a relatively disciplined Netanyahu loyalist who combines economic credentials with an increasingly hawkish security posture. His greatest accomplishment during this government has arguably been his ability to remain relevant across multiple strategic portfolios without becoming consumed by the internal Likud wars that damaged several rivals.

As foreign minister, Cohen focused heavily on expanding Israel’s diplomatic relationships and continuing the Abraham Accords approach. As energy minister, he has pushed Israeli natural gas development, energy independence and regional energy cooperation. He has also taken a hard line toward Iran and against UNRWA infrastructure in Jerusalem. His weakness is that he has not yet become identified with one historic transformation. Cohen has competence, experience and strong party support, but he cannot point to a completed strategic achievement on the scale of eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia or transforming Israel’s energy infrastructure.

That should become his challenge in the next government. His political future will likely revolve around three objectives: strengthening Israel’s energy independence, expanding regional normalization particularly with Saudi Arabia and other Arab governments, and maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. His first-place result makes him not merely another minister. It places him firmly inside the conversation over who eventually inherits the senior leadership of Likud after Netanyahu.

Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin, Two Very Different Faces of Likud

Amir Ohana’s rise to the top tier is striking. As Knesset speaker, Ohana has largely avoided the day-to-day ministerial failures that can damage politicians managing difficult portfolios. He has instead become one of Likud’s most recognizable national representatives. He previously served as justice minister and public security minister and became Israel’s first openly gay Knesset speaker, an important political symbol for a right-wing party often caricatured internationally as socially monolithic. 

Ohana’s strength has been political presentation, loyalty to the nationalist camp and his ability to represent Likud internationally. His weakness is almost the reverse of Eli Cohen’s: it is difficult to point to a major policy transformation personally associated with his speakership. His challenge in the coming term will be to demonstrate that his popularity can translate into executive leadership. If he eventually seeks a major ministry or even future Likud leadership, he will need a policy record matching his political popularity. 

Yariv Levin is an entirely different case. Levin is probably the clearest ideological winner of the primary. He entered the current government promising a fundamental restructuring of Israel’s judicial system. In January 2023 he unveiled the judicial reform program that sought to change judicial appointments, limit judicial intervention and restore greater power to elected institutions. The reform became one of the most consequential domestic political battles in Israeli history. Some elements were advanced. In 2025 the Knesset passed changes to the Judicial Selection Committee that increase political influence over appointments and are scheduled to take effect after the next election. But the broader reform Levin originally envisioned was never completed.

From the perspective of Levin and the ideological right, that is unfinished business. From the perspective of his critics, the reform produced enormous social division and constitutional instability. Either way, Levin cannot honestly claim that the project he launched in 2023 has been completed. Indeed, senior Likud figures are already saying openly that the next government should continue it. Coalition chairman Ofir Katz said just before the primary that the coalition had been “too soft” on judicial reform and that after the election they intend to go further. Levin’s mission for the next term is therefore obvious: finish the judicial restructuring. His strong primary........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)