IBN: A Strategy to Resolve the Iran Conflict Through Regime Transition |
The “Iran: Back to the Norm” (IBN) strategy can let the US and Israel (the Coalition) snatch victories from the jaws of mission unaccomplished in the 2026 Iran War. Their kinetic air campaigns, Operation Roaring Lion for the Israelis and Operation Epic Fury for the Americans, have achieved every tactical objective, with all designated targets struck. Yet, the strategic goals — regime change, nuclear weapons program termination, the end of proxy support — still escape them. Then Iran throws down two additional gauntlets: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the drone and missile attacks on its US-allied neighbors, against which the Coalition only has partial credible answers (blockades of Iranian ports and threats of bombing Iran back to the Stone Age). The war is now at a stalemate.
The IBN strategy aims to break the stalemate by exploiting the unconventional structure of the Iranian regime itself ― a unique hybrid system with an unelected theocratic pillar overlording over an elected republican pillar. The IBN is the ultimate divide-and-conquer strategy; instead of hitting both pillars simultaneously as in a regime change, it advocates a regime transition that dismantles the theocratic pillar while elevating the republican pillar. The IBN envisions the latter as the sole recognized representative of the state of Iran, but only on an interim basis. Its mandate is to rally the public around a republican ideal, serve as a pragmatic interlocutor in a ceasefire negotiation to reopen the Strait and halt attacks on neighboring states, convene a ‘Big Tent‘ process for drafting a new constitution, and oversee the first election of the resulting Republic of Iran. Answerable to the electorate and grounded more in nationalism than in religious ideology, the new administration will be more rational in discussing the nuclear weapons and proxy military support within the framework of a comprehensive peace agreement, since for most Iranians, these white-elephant projects rank low in priority and have done more to undermine than to advance the country’s sovereignty and prosperity.
Targeted for dismantlement, the theocratic pillar will not go down without a fight. Air campaigns alone have proven incapable of dislodging a regime, and sending ground troops is a political anathema in both Washington and Jerusalem. Now comes the IBN’s “Battlefield: Cities“: It enables Iranians to dismantle the dreaded pillar themselves through coordinated, protected, massive marches. The Coalition shifts the air wars from decapitalization to targeting all positions of the theocratic institution, using lethal means but also psychological........