Israel’s most recent election polls: a hope for sanity. |
As an Israeli citizen who considers myself a moderate, I follow the election polls with some interest. While I understand the limitation of polls, especially ones that are done months before the election, the most recent poll gave me a real sense of hope for sanity.
There are basically three groups of parties. The first is Likud which is headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. It is often called “the Netanyahu block.” The second is a group of Jewish parties lead by Neftali Bennet which oppose Netanyahu. They are sometimes called “the Anti-Netanyahu block”. The third group is commonly known as “the Arab parties”, of which there are four.
The Knesset is comprised of 120 members. In order to form a government a coalition must have 61 seats in the Knesset. According to the most recent poll, Neither the Netanyahu block nor the Ant-Netanyahu block .have the 61 seats in the new Knesset necessary to form a government. The Arab parties, thus, hold the balance of power.
I recognize that there are some serious limitations to this analysis. The most obvious one is that Netanyahu is justifiably called a “magician” at being able to remain as Prime Minister. Additionally, Netanyahu has a tragic flaw: he will do almost anything legal to get reelected. In this case, I have watched with dismay as Netanyahu has watched Donald Trump make mistake after mistake in dealing with Iran in the present war, but refuses to stand up to him. The only reason that I can conceive of for Netanyahu’s conduct is that Trump, to my great dismay, is still wildly popular in Israel and Netanyahu thinks that by following Trump he will get more votes in the fall........