On May 21, Nickolay Mladenov, the High Representative of the U.S.-backed Board of Peace, presented a 15-point roadmap to the UN Security Council aimed at realising  Trump’s Gaza peace plan. In the same briefing, he called on the international community to use “every means at its disposal” to force Hamas to disarm. It was a striking admission that the plan he just presented lacks tools to deal with terrorist groups unwilling to cooperate.

Now what is in the roadmap? The roadmap is structured around four main themes. The first five points establish foundational principles, including the completion of existing ceasefire obligations, independent verification of each stage before the next can proceed, and the creation of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a transitional Palestinian civilian authority that formally excludes Hamas from governance. Points six through eleven focus on security arrangements. They include the principle that there will be only one authority and one law, police reform and integration. It also involves gradual decommissioning of weapons by armed groups, the regulation of personal weapons, and a social peace agreement to prevent internal violence. Points twelve to fourteen deal with the deployment of an International Stabilization Force as a buffer and a phased Israeli withdrawal tied to verified progress on decommissioning. The final point links reconstruction to areas certified as stable and under effective civilian administration.

The Conceptual Strengths of the Roadmap

Several aspects of the roadmap are reasonable and doable. The requirement for independent verification of each stage before moving forward addresses the deep lack of trust between the parties. Linking any reconstruction to verified stability also makes sense as it reduces the risk of resources going to areas still controlled by armed groups. However, when the roadmap is studied from the perspective of Israel’s security needs, the roadmap contains serious structural weaknesses.

The Core Weakness in Disarmament

The most immediate problem is that the roadmap has no plan for how to deal with armed groups that refuse to disarm. Hamas has publicly rejected disarmament. The roadmap assumes a gradual, cooperative process, but offers no backup plan when groups resist disarmament. This is not a theoretical concern; it is the reality now on the ground.

Weapons are to be transferred to the NCAG under international monitoring, but the plan provides no mechanism for actively locating and verifying weapons stockpiles. There is no provision for systematic searches of tunnels, warehouses, or other locations. If a group declares a certain number of weapons and hands over that amount, the roadmap offers no reliable way........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)