When the Medicine is Killing the Patient: The Case Against War with Iran |
In medical ethics, there is a point where a treatment becomes more lethal than the ailment it seeks to cure. As the rhetoric of a direct military confrontation with Iran moves from theory into bloody practice, we ought to ask and answer honestly: At what point does the cost of preventing a very hypothetical nuclear threat destroy the life we are trying to protect to the extent that the protection becomes self-destructive?
It is not a secret that I oppose the war with Iran from Day 1, but unlike most of the opposition my objection is based more on utilitarian reasoning than on moral arguments. Actually, the moral arguments have very little chances to convince a a bellicose nation, whereas the utilitarian analysis may find some acceptance even by die hard patriots who are still not willing to commit suicide now only to prevent death in an unknown future date
The “Human” Balance Sheet
Utilitarianism may suffer from a negative reputation in a collectivistic culture like Israel, but utility is not found only in treasury spreadsheets; it is also the ability of a child to sleep through the night without the Pavlovian terror of a siren and the ability to drive to work without the fear of being caught on a highway with no shelter. The number of casualties from this war might be small but the mental burden is immense. To live in a war is to live abnormal life. We must calculate the “Quality of Life” tax that is already being paid. It consists of international isolation as Ben Gurion Airport is practically shut down; it includes the thousands of weddings, Bar Mitzvahs, and community festivals postponed indefinitely; it comprises the suspension of vital educational programs; and it is composed of the physical toll of irregular eating and the neglect of chronic health issues because it has become a risk just to visit a doctor. When the “cure” for a threat requires the total suspension of joy, the patient is already in critical condition.
The Arithmetic of Ruin
Even if we look only at the cold numbers, the math is devastating. The “Iron Swords” war cost the Israeli economy upwards of 250 billion shekels. A direct war with Iran—a country nearly 80 times the size of Israel—would render these figures quaint. Here are few alarming examples: A single Arrow-3 interceptor costs roughly 10 million shekels. One evening of a combined Iran-Hezbollah missile attack may cost more than the annual budget of a small government ministry like the the ministry of culture and sport. One week of attacks may cost more than annual budget of a mid size ministry like transportation. This is what we lose, but what do we win? For more than three decades Netanyahu has been warning that Iran is only minutes away from developing its first atomic bomb. Never has this threat come true. In June of last year, Netanyahu guaranteed in a speech that ended the 12 days war with Iran (the first round) that the threat has been revoked. Surprisingly or not, Israel started a new war with Iran on February 28 in order to revoke this revoked threat. This week Netanyahu announced again that the threat is revoked. So why are we still fighting? Realistic cynics would say that both Netanyahu and Trump have personal issues (cross-examination in Netanyahu’s trial and Epstein files accordingly) that need to be swept off the agenda and that war with Iran is the perfect broom, but the truth is that from a utilitarian standpoint – the actual reason of the war is not important. It is enough that billions are spent to prevent a “hypothetical” strike with extremely low likelihood while domestic services that keep the population alive are bankrupting. Post-traumatic stress is no longer a condition of the few; it is the atmospheric pressure under which we all live. We are essentially burning down our own house today to ensure the neighbor doesn’t eventually buy a box of matches.
The greatest utilitarian failure is the assumption that war “solves” a problem. No war destruction of Iran would convince Persians to like Jews. No occupation of their homeland would convince Palestinians to become Zionists. We cannot afford to cure a hypothetical headache by undergoing a voluntary, brain transplant. It is time to stop the march toward an avoidable catastrophe and start investing in the life we have actually built through regional de-escalation, even if eternal peace is still too far to accomplish.