The signing ceremony in Tripoli marks more than just a commercial milestone for Libya’s long-dormant energy sector. As the National Oil Corporation announced that a consortium led by Italy’s Eni and QatarEnergy secured the rights to Offshore Block O1 in the Sirte Basin, the geopolitical map of North Africa shifted. This is the first major international licensing round since 2007, a decade and a half defined by civil war, institutional collapse, and the rise of radical militias. While the formal narrative focuses on Libya’s return to the global energy stage and its goal of reaching two million barrels per day by 2030, the underlying reality is far more concerning for regional stability. QatarEnergy’s entry into Libya’s upstream sector is not a mere business venture; it is the formalization of Doha’s long-term strategy to transform economic leverage into permanent political influence within the Maghreb.

For over a decade, Qatar has been the primary financial and ideological patron of the Tripoli-based administrations and the patchwork of Islamist-aligned militias that sustain them. From the earliest days of the 2011 revolution, when Doha bypassed international protocols to market rebel oil, to its current........

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