The Party That Adds the EU and Ukraine to Its Platform May Win in Fall 2026 |
The political force in Israel that first puts a new security formula into its election platform — the United States as Israel’s main ally, the European Union as a strategic partner, and Ukraine as an important direction — may gain a real advantage in the race toward the expected elections in autumn 2026.
This is not a slogan.
It is a response to a changing world.
Israel’s security debate can no longer be built only around the old question: who is better for Israel in Washington? That question still matters, but it is no longer enough. The next serious Israeli security platform should also answer another question: what does Israel do if the American guarantee becomes less automatic, less predictable, and more dependent on domestic politics in the United States?
Europe is already asking itself that question.
On June 10, 2026, the European Council on Foreign Relations published a major report titled Home Alone: Europeans Are Ready to Defend Themselves. The poll was conducted in May 2026 across 15 European countries and included 19,481 respondents.
The countries surveyed were Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
The main finding is sharp: Europeans are no longer confident that the United States will protect them automatically in the event of war.
Only 11 percent of respondents now see the United States as a true ally.
In November 2024, that figure was 22 percent.
Around half a year before the latest poll, it was still 16 percent.
This is not a temporary mood. It is a steady decline.
At the same time, 25 percent of Europeans now see the United States as either a rival or an adversary. Around half of the European public views America as a “necessary partner” — a country one must work with, but no longer fully trust.
The most important result is even more striking: in none of the 15 countries surveyed does a majority believe that the United States would necessarily come to their aid if their country were attacked.
Even in Poland, one of the most pro-American countries in Europe, only 37 percent expressed confidence in American military assistance.
In Spain, the figure was around 12 percent.
Across all 15 countries, the average level of confidence in American help was roughly 23.8 percent.
At the same time, Europeans trust their neighbors more. In almost every surveyed country except Bulgaria, a majority believes that at least some European partners would help in case of an attack. The average level of confidence in European assistance was around 65.1 percent.
This is the new European reality.
America remains important.
But the old belief in an automatic American security umbrella is fading.
For Israel, this should not be treated as a European curiosity. It should be treated as a strategic warning.
Israel has built its security doctrine for decades around a deep alliance with the United States. That alliance remains vital. American military aid, air defense cooperation, diplomatic backing, weapons supplies, intelligence coordination, and support in international institutions are not symbolic. They are part of Israel’s security........