Oil, War, and Aliyah: Does the Hormuz Crisis Change the Calculus? |
It has been a tense Passover. Millions in Israel holding seders in bomb shelters, the rest of us keeping a lower profile than usual elsewhere.
Jews across Europe and North America have been sitting at seder tables in countries where energy bills have spiked, food prices are rising, and the news is dominated by an active US-Israeli war in the Middle East. Some will be asking, not for the first time, whether it is time to leave.
This year, the question comes with an unusual complication: the country they might be considering moving to is directly involved in the conflict generating the economic pressure pushing them out.
This year, the question comes with an unusual complication: the country they might be considering moving to is directly involved in the conflict generating the economic pressure pushing them out.
That is the aliyah paradox of 2026. The Hormuz crisis has not created a simple directional push toward Israel. It has created a genuine dilemma.
The economic case, honestly assessed
Israel was already the fourth most expensive developed country to live in before the war began, with prices of goods and services running about 29% above the OECD average. That is not a welcoming starting point for someone weighing financial incentives — particularly when you look behind the headline numbers.
National Insurance Institute figures for 2024 show that 21% of Israelis live in poverty, including approximately 880,000 children. This disturbing figure is the second-highest rate of child poverty in the OECD. Israel is simultaneously one of the most expensive places in the developed world and one of its most unequal. That contradiction does not get enough airtime in diaspora aliyah conversations, which tend to focus on the spiritual and communal dimensions while glossing over what life on the ground actually costs for those without significant capital behind them.
The Hormuz closure compounds this. Israeli economists note that many essential items the country imports: fertilizers, metals, grains including wheat and corn will become more expensive as........