Political Situation Assessment Report of Somalia (2026) |
The political situation in Somalia is deteriorating rapidly and entering a very dangerous phase. Many people never imagined that after the era of Mohamed Siad Barre, the country could again face leadership that resembles or even exceeds authoritarian tendencies. While Siad Barre ruled the entire nation under a centralized system, the current president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, governs only a limited portion of the country, estimated at around 20%, yet is accused of consolidating power in a similar authoritarian manner.
Despite limited territorial control, he has pushed forward constitutional changes that are widely viewed as unilateral and lacking national consensus. These actions are seen by critics as an attempt to override the agreed framework of the Provisional Constitution of Somalia 2012 and instead impose a new political order that favors extended executive power. His reported intention to extend his presidential term by two additional years has further escalated political tensions and raised serious concerns about the future of democratic governance in Somalia.
At the federal level, relations between Villa Somalia and several member states have significantly broken down. In particular, tensions have intensified with:
These states are increasingly asserting autonomy and resisting........