The Endgame of Operation Epic Fury |
Operation Epic Fury has entered its third week; however, commentators and analysts still remain uncertain about the objectives of the American, Israeli, and transitional Iranian authorities. The central question remains: what is the intended endgame?
First, at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump himself told The New York Times in a brief interview on Sunday that the strikes could last “four or five weeks” and target Iran’s regime infrastructure, nuclear and ballistic missile-related sites, and Iranian leadership. This is more than just assertions of American and Israeli power, particularly of America’s ability to punish its enemies. The sheer volume and scope of the attacks on Iran, however, indicate that they are not primarily symbolic—that is, meant to intimidate or accomplish specific goals—but rather are intended to facilitate some larger practical outcome.
To answer the question of what the outcome is, we only need to look at the two practical options that the Trump administration and Israel have. Firstly, is the aim of this historic operation only to engage with a rump Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps regime in order to try to “get a deal” and possibly even lift sanctions, leaving it in place without the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei? Or second, is the objective to destroy the entire command structure of the regime, particularly the IRGC, and let the Iranian people make their own decisions?
Accepting a continuity of the IRGC in power and engaging with it would effectively offer protection to the revolutionary apparatus that has waged war against the United States since 1979 and, through its proxies, brought terror and death to Israel. It might even be able to take advantage of a window of opportunity with Washington that could lead to the lifting of sanctions. It is unacceptable to collaborate with the IRGC or support a successor administration that in any way guarantees the continued existence of the main tool of the Islamic revolutionary regime, as this calls into question the veracity of American and Israeli claims regarding the initial motivation behind the operation. Additionally, it would go against what President Trump himself has said in public for decades.
The best course of action is to keep destroying Iran’s vital nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure while also dismantling the IRGC’s command structure as much as possible, both militarily and “politically” (including Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and current National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani, among others). This aligns with Israel’s goal, as the prime minister has consistently called for the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities for ten years. Therefore, the aforementioned destruction could be completed in four to five weeks, which is a reasonable amount of time. Both Israeli and American national interests would be served by the devastation, which would significantly contribute to world peace.
The Iranians have responded to both President Trump and the exiled crown prince’s call and are ready to seize their moment. Iranians in exile are ready to return and build a new post-Islamic Republic. The downfall of the Islamic regime is at hand, period. For the American president, the endgame is no “taking it over” as in Iraq and Afghanistan and no “Venezuela.” For the Israelis, there is no interest in occupation or creating security zones. The endgame is simple. Kill their enemies, obliterate their command structures, annihilate their offensive capabilities, and go home.