Buckle up for a volatile year of Trump-Xi bromance, Taiwan and Kim |
This is the season when columnists turn to prophecy, and then congratulate themselves a year later for getting some of it right.
I’m afraid I’m about to join the club.
As I predicted at the end of last year, Asia in 2025 revolved around three main forces: the blossoming bromance between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, rising pressure on Taiwan, and a newly emboldened Kim Jong Un drawing closer to both Moscow and Beijing.
It’s not going to last: US President Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jinping.Credit: AP
These dynamics will only get more obvious in 2026. The region is heading into an increasingly precarious year, with deepening tensions that will have a cascading effect on all of us.
On the surface, Trump and Xi appear to have found a new warmth — but it’s fragile. Xi was the winner of the trade war in 2025, which means Trump is going into this next year on the back foot. That won’t be lost on Washington, no matter how loud the bluster. While the rapprochement has been welcomed by markets, a lot could go wrong. The leaders will have the opportunity to meet as many as four times in 2026, providing multiple occasions for relations to head south.
And even if they........