Strategic Survival

India’s energy policy is often described in the language of “security”. That framing is comforting ~ and misleading. What the country is really practising is strategic survival in a system where energy has become a geopolitical weapon. From the oil shock triggered by the Yom Kippur War of 1973 ~ the fourth Arab-Israeli war ~ to the current tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the pattern is unmistakable: global conflicts do not just disrupt markets; they redefine the rules of access.

For a country that imports the bulk of its energy, each crisis is less an anomaly and more a reminder of structural vulnerability. India’s response has been pragmatic rather than ideological. During the Cold War, it leaned into Soviet supply lines; after liberalisation under then Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao, it opened its energy sector to global capital; and in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War, it pivoted swiftly to discounted Russian crude despite Western pressure. These are not contradictions. They are adaptations to a system where alliances shift faster than pipelines can be built.

The deeper logic is this: India is not diversifying because it wants to; it is diversifying because it must. Supplier spread, strategic reserves, and refining capacity are all attempts to manage exposure, not eliminate it. Even flagship assets like the Jamnagar refinery underline this paradox: India can refine and export fuel at scale, yet remains overwhelmingly dependent on imported crude. What has changed in recent years is the weaponisation of interdependence. Sanctions regimes, tariff threats, and maritime chokepoints now shape energy flows as much as geology does. When Washington pressures buyers of Russian oil, or when tensions in West Asia threaten tanker routes, energy becomes an instrument of coercion.

In such a world, neutrality is not passive; it is an active, calibrated strategy. This reality also reshapes domestic policy: pricing, subsidies, and inflation management increasingly reflect global shocks, turning energy policy into a central lever of political stability and economic governance. This is why India’s foreign policy increasingly resembles a balancing act rather than a set of fixed alignments. It buys oil from Russia, maintains ties with the United States, and engages Gulf producers ~ while trying to avoid being locked into any single camp. The objective is not to maximise advantage, but to minimise vulnerability. Yet, there is a limit to how far this strategy can go. Geography still matters.

The concentration of supply routes through narrow corridors like Hormuz ensures that no amount of diplomatic agility can fully insulate India from external shocks. Domestic alternatives, whether coal, renewables, or incremental upstream gains, offer buffers, but not autonomy. The uncomfortable conclusion is that India’s energy future will remain contingent on forces beyond its control. The real achievement, therefore, is not independence, but resilience: the ability to absorb shocks, reroute supplies, and keep the economy moving. In a world where energy flows are increasingly politicised, that may be the only realistic definition of power.

‘Russia behind Iran’s accurate strikes’: Zelenskyy pivots two wars, makes mess of peace proffer

Meanwhile, Lavrov specifically flagged risks to Russian personnel stationed at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, warning that United States and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure could trigger catastrophic environmental consequences across the entire region.

‘Military conflict alone cannot resolve any issue,’ says PM Modi after talks with Finland President Stubb

India and Finland emphasised diplomacy and global peace while also highlighting expanding collaboration in emerging technologies, trade and sustainability during talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Alexander Stubb.

The nuclear arms race and Cold War, begun during the closing stages of World War II, gradually petered down with SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) I and II agreements of 1972 and 1979 between the US and USSR.

visit website

Strategic Survival

© The Statesman