Conditional Peace |
The latest round of diplomacy around Ukraine marks a subtle but consequential shift in how the war’s possible endgame is being framed. For the first time, the emphasis is less on victory or defeat and more on risk management: how to stop the fighting without freezing Ukraine into permanent vulnerability.
The offer of “Nato-like” security guarantees, even without formal alliance membership, reflects an acknowledgement that Ukraine’s core demand has always been deterrence, not symbolism. This matters because the failure of past ceasefires was not rooted in ambiguity but in imbalance. Ukraine disarmed itself of leverage while Russia retained both military pressure and strategic intent. Any pause in hostilities that does not decisively alter this equation would simply reset the clock for the next assault. Strong, treaty-backed guarantees ~ especially those ratified through domestic political processes in Western capitals ~ signal an attempt to correct that flaw.........