Geopolitical crises early arrive with neat labels. They unsettle markets, test diplomacy and expose economic vulnerabilities. But sometimes they also create openings that prepared nations can convert into long-term advantage. The evolving understanding between the United States and Iran, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the improving but still fluid India-US trade framework and the possibility of Iran’s reconstruction together constitute one such moment for India.

The issue is not only whether crude prices soften for a few weeks. The larger question is whether India can use this transition to strengthen energy security, trade competitiveness and its strategic economic presence across West Asia and Central Asia. India enters this moment with confidence, but not immunity. It is still among the fastest growing major economies, with GDP growth projected around 6.3-6.5 per cent, foreign exchange reserves above US$700 billion and consumer inflation broadly within the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band.

Yet 85 per cent of India’s crude oil requirement is imported, and almost two-thirds of these imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Every sustained US$10 per barrel increase in crude prices can widen the current account deficit by 0.3 percentage points of GDP, add pressure on inflation, and weigh on the rupee. This is why the West Asia reset must be approached with preparedness rather than complacency. The first principle is to treat lower oil prices as a strategic window, not merely as temporary relief. India’s strategic petroleum reserve currently provides only a limited cushion compared to the country’s import dependence.

Periods of softer crude prices should therefore be used to accelerate filling of strategic reserves, expand LNG storage, and diversify sourcing across Russia, the Gulf, the United States, Africa, and Latin America. Each dollar saved on the oil import bill strengthens macroeconomic stability when deployed to build........

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