Psephology, the study of elections and voting, came into its own in India, after journalist and economist Prannoy Roy, writing for a weekly magazine, correctly predicted the outcome of the 1984 General Elections. Roy did the same for the 1989 General Elections ~ in a television programme commissioned by Doordarshan. Roy’s accurate election forecasts set off a trend of predicting election results, with every journalist worth his salt, joining the bandwagon. Sadly, unlike Roy, most of the newly minted ‘psephologists’ had little training in statistics or statistical methods, and in the guise of forecasting election results, most were trying to create a tempo in favour of certain candidates.

Taking note of this deleterious trend, the Election Commission prohibited publication of exit polls etc. till the last vote was cast. It is quite another matter that election forecasts are freely available on You Tube and social media, even while elections are on. Aired in the interval between casting and counting of votes; exit polls provided both entertainment, and political insights to viewers. Most surveys got the election re – sults right, though with minor discrepancies, and thus prepared the public and candidates for the results that were to follow.

The first time that opinion polls got election results terribly wrong was for the Delhi Assembly Elections 2015; almost everyone predicted a majority for BJP, which ended up with only three seats, in an assembly of seventy legislators. The issue of biased opinion polls drew the public’s attention after the 2024 General Elections; contrary to what surveys had predicted, the NDA did not end up with a big majority, and again contrary to predictions, opposition parties were not decimated, but increased their tally considerably.

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Catastrophic events followed the airing of exit polls, the Sensex rose dizzyingly, falling around six per cent during counting ~ wiping out lakhs of crores of investors’ money. The fall in Sensex after publication of election results can be easily understood; elections are watershed events in India, which bring normal life to a grinding halt. Right from the day any kind of elections ~ Municipal, State or Parliamentary ~ are announced, Government offices cease to work. During elections all conversations and activities invariably veer around to election........

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