An Asian ‘NATO’

Ashok Kapur

The Statesman

0
yesterday

The “endless war”, as President Donald Trump would describe, may appear to be drawing to a close, at long last. The Russia, Ukraine ‘conflict’ is poised for a tragic end, with Big Brother almost gobbling up the smaller sibling. There appears to be little hope for the smaller one being able to secure an honourable and just truce, having already lost about 20 per cent of its land to the aggressor. Rarely in the history of modern wars has an aggressor been rewarded with the spoils of war so blatantly by the world community. Although Russia may have lost thousands of its troops and billions of its liquid assets, Ukraine is devastated. It may take years, if not decades to recover.

Undeniably, for almost four years Europe stood by in solidarity and support with it. But to little avail. The US was unwavering in its support till the change of guard last year in Washington. The Russians have taken due notice and continued to ‘bash on, regardless’. This development has rewritten the rules of the modern geopolitical Game: ‘Might is Right.’

The US is now arm-twisting a hapless Ukraine to go for a ‘peace deal’, largely on Russia’s terms. If that happens, there will be only one undeclared winner ~ China. There is little doubt that it has drawn the appropriate lessons from the emerging geopolitical narrative. Its long-term ambition of annexing Taiwan by diplomacy or force, is now within reach, preferably by force. It could grab the ‘trophy’ coveted by it more quickly. And, as appears probable, the world would watch in impotent horror but do precious little by way of military aid or ensure a pushback by a nuclear armed China.

Taiwan’s fate appears to be sealed. If an emboldened China were to be the successful conqueror, it is bound to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. The maximum collateral damage of a virtual surrender enforced on Ukraine will befall other Indo-Pacific powers such as the Philippines, Japan and Vietnam and other maritime powers, besides India. All these countries depend largely on maritime trade, just as China does. Hence, in their own long-term interest if not survival, they have to deter and contain China so that it does not dominate the Indo-Pacific region.

None of these powers including India can do so by itself. To serve as an effective deterrent, it has to be a formal military alliance, on the pattern of NATO. According to Kissinger, the Communist Chinese “respect only one thing ~ strength”. No doubt, the present QUAD grouping is a step in the right direction. The members are all under the same looming China threat ~ USA, Japan, Australia, and India ~ all robust democracies. But of the four, India is most vulnerable. It is the only country sharing a long land border with China, where the latter has often ignited periodic border conflicts on ‘historical claims’ ever since its formation in 1949.

Incidentally, assuming if India were to adopt the same logic as communist China, we would be laying border claims on Burma, Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan. Besides the threat from land, India’s maritime trade currently passing through the Taiwan Strait and bound for its East Asian QUAD partners, Japan and Australia, would be hit. Other QUAD members are less vulnerable. The USA is thousands of kilometers away, and domination of the Indo-Pacific waters by China would directly affect Japan and Australia, both historic allies of the US. China has developed the world’s largest naval force, but, mercifully, the US packs more firepower in its second largest naval fleet of the world.

At least as of now. Both Japan and Australia have further fortified themselves outside of QUAD too. Japan has hosted several thousand ‘US boots’ on the ground since World War II. Australia has recently renewed its Naval Treaty both with the US and UK, and what is most significant, includes a nuclear umbrella. Which leaves India out in the cold, so to say. AT present, QUAD is a non-binding alliance and not a formal military pact, unlike NATO. The latter has a binding clause: “an attack on any member will be considered an attack on all the members”.

There is no such clause in the QUAD alliance, each party will consult others. According to Dr Kissinger, arguably one of the greatest military thinkers of modern times, this may or may not translate into military assistance in the event of an actual attack on any one member. In other words, such an “arrangement” sounds reassuring when the going is good but if it comes to the crunch, there is no guarantee of actual military support. Again in the context of QUAD, India is further vulnerable. Of the other members, the US is the only nuclear power, besides India. The US, thus far, as leader of QUAD was most reassuring. It has, according to SIPRI, Sweden’s most authoritative think tank, around 6,000 nuclear warheads, ten times the number of Chinese warheads, though the latter is trying feverishly to catch up. But flip-flops over Ukraine have diluted its role as a reliable leader of the free world, the Land of the Free.

Its pursuit of what a leading Indian military expert has described as ‘pursuit of naked self-interest’ should be taken due note of by countries like India. Admittedly, Ukraine is not a member of the US-led NATO but was an anxious applicant. But the way it is being bullied by the present US leadership is disturbing. If a democracy were so shockingly left out in the cold, indeed freezing cold, India must be weary of such a leader of democracies. Ironically, it could be India’s moment in context. Fortunately, there has been a change of guard recently in Japan.

The Japanese people, in their wisdom, have elected an Iron Lady to lead them. She is, in contrast to her predecessor, categorical in her assessment of the Chinese Communists. She has clearly stated that she will not abandon Taiwan in the event of a communist assault. Ditto for the Philippines. Its current leader has, during a recent visit to India clearly served a notice to the Chinese: “We will not yield a square inch to our Communist friends.” These words should be music to the ears of India’s foreign policy Establishment. That is if anyone out there is listening. Of course, the Philippines is not a QUAD member at present. At least not yet, it can be said. But it is already a strategic partner of India. It is the first country which has acquired the deadly Brahmos missile from India.

It could be a successful challenge for Indian diplomacy to induct the country into QUAD, to further strengthen the alliance against an increasingly belligerent China. The present stance of India’s foreign policy makers to treat the impending Ukraine disaster as a European problem would be an acute case of myopia. Once they conquer Taiwan, one never knows they may shift their attention to Arunachal Pradesh. The situation is fraught. India must seize the moment and forge an alliance on the pattern of NATO, that is Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO), preferably led by it.

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)

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An Asian ‘NATO’

Ashok Kapur

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