An early election need not be a disaster for Reform |
We live in a time of ifs and wills. If Reform and Restore split the right-wing vote in Makerfield, will Andy Burnham win this Thursday’s by-election? If he does re-enter the Commons, will he challenge Keir Starmer for Labour’s leadership? If he does so, will it be a contest or a coronation? If Burnham wins, will he then call an election? And if he does so, will Labour win it?
I cannot go inside Burnham’s head; as Lara Brown has highlighted, there isn’t much in it, except the Happy Mondays. But I can read polls. The two hypotheticals that have been done with Burnham give Labour a slim lead. In our current era of multi-party politics, that could be enough to eke out a slim majority or at least to be the largest party in a hung parliament capable of cobbling together a government. This is before a Burnham-bounce – stop laughing at the back – from a nation rejoicing at Starmer’s departure.
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An election would give Burnham the opportunity to seek his own mandate, unshackle himself from a 2024 manifesto that he has publicly dissed and which has proven unworkable in government. It would also be – unless this undisguised rent-a-minister turned municipal bus botherer proves to be a prime minister of Augustan abilities – his best chance of winning before he falls victim to the entropy, events and ennui that do for all premiers in Weimar Britain. Come to the cabaret, Andy!
Yet calling an early election would also be odd. Starmer may have long since spaffed any backbench goodwill available to him, but Labour still have a nominal majority of 160-odd. Prime ministers call early elections when they believe they have a........