In less than 24 hours the winner of the SNP leadership contest will be announced. Yet it’s safe to say that whoever triumphs, the growing consensus is that the result will be a net plus for the SNP’s political opponents. Over the course of the short contest – sparked by Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation – the party has given way to in-fighting as Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan have torn chunks out of one another. There has been collateral – with Peter Murrell, Sturgeon’s husband, resigning as SNP chief executive along with communications director Murray Foote over an alleged cover up over a fall in the party’s membership numbers.

But who wins still matters when it comes to the challenge facing Labour and the Tories. Sturgeon’s departure could pave the way to a Scottish Labour resurgence that helps Keir Starmer find a path to a majority at the next election. Undoubtedly the Tories preferred opponent is the bookies’ favourite and the preference of the SNP party machinery: Humza Yousaf. ‘He is Rishi’s secret weapon,’ says one ally of the Prime Minister. The Tories believe a gaffe-prone first minister would be a gift on several fronts. His socially liberal positions such as on gender reform could win over Labour voters (or at least stop current SNP voters from moving to Scottish Labour in their droves).

In contrast, it’s Labour MPs who would prefer Forbes. Were she to win, there is an opportunity for Scottish Labour to win over socially progressive voters who feel alienated by her comments on gay marriage and sex outside marriage (even though she says she would not change the law on such issues). Forbes had initially been viewed by the Tories as the candidate that most worries them – with the SNP finance secretary seen as being the most credible on the economy and having appeal with some unionist voters. The fact Labour see an opportunity in a Forbes’ win is another reason the Tories will be hoping it’s Yousaf’s name that is called on Monday.