Another weekend, another set of stories on the chances of a Boris Johnson return. Allies of the former prime minister are on the attack over the privileges committee’s partygate inquiry following the disclosure that Sue Gray – who led the report at the time – has been hired as Keir Starmer’s new chief of staff. It’s still up in the air when Gray will be allowed to take on the role as Acoba – the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments – could take three months to come up with the terms for the appointment. Gray will need to disclose at what point her conversations with the Labour leader began.
However, the most important development this weekend relates to a different issue: small boats. At the end of last year, Rishi Sunak promised to bring forward new immigration legislation to help tackle the issue of small boat crossings, one of his five priorities. The guiding principle of this legislation is so that if a person comes to the UK illegally, they will not be able to stay. As I write in this week’s Spectator, it’s the issue that animates Tory MPs the most. When Sunak addressed the 1922 committee this week over his protocol deal, many of the questions were asking when the boats legislation would be ready. ‘The party is very expectant on this bill,’ says a government source.
So, what will it do? The bill was completed over the weekend and is expected to be unveiled by Home Secretary Suella Braverman in the House of Commons on Tuesday. Under the new laws, anyone arriving in the UK on a small boat would be prevented from claiming asylum with the Home Secretary having a duty to ‘detain and swiftly remove’. How is this different to the rules today? At present, asylum seekers have the right to remain in the country to have their case heard. This new legislation is intended to prevent those who arrive illegally from claiming asylum in the UK by removing them either to a ‘safe third country’ or Rwanda. The policy is centred on stopping claims in the UK.
The new legislation is meant to work alongside the Rwanda scheme – to offshore asylum seekers – which is currently held up by the courts. ‘Once that is in place, the two work together in unison’, says a government source. At that point the government hopes that other countries could sign more off-shoring agreements.
Evidently, none of this will happen overnight – and the big question is whether it will happen at all. The government’s best case scenario is for Rwanda flights to start taking off by the end of the year. This legislation will, too, take time and is likely to face opposition in the House of Lords. Ministers wouldn’t be too sad were Labour to oppose it too – given it could create a dividing line on immigration. There is a chance the legislation has a unifying effect within the Tory party. Those privy to early drafts say it goes further than Sunak’s predecessors have. Yet minister are trying to push what is doable while keeping it realistic enough that they would be able to defend it in any court challenge.
The problem for Sunak is that given his party has been in power for over a decade and many promises have been made on small boats in that time, there is scepticism that this policy will really make the difference. The hope in government is that it will start to show results ahead of the election. If it fails to, then pressure on Sunak to consider withdrawing the UK from the ECHR – perhaps as a Tory manifesto pledge – will grow.
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