A new deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol is imminent. On Monday, Rishi Sunak will meet with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen as the Prime Minister prepares to announce changes to the Protocol. In a joint statement between the two sides, a meeting has been confirmed:
Today, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Rishi Sunak agreed to continue their work in person towards shared, practical solutions for the range of complex challenges around the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland. President von der Leyen will therefore meet with the Prime Minister in the UK tomorrow.
While No. 10 still insists that nothing has been finalised, the increasing sense among government aides and senior ministers is that a deal is close to being announced as early as Monday. Last week, Sunak delayed plans to announce a deal as he grappled with kickback from the DUP and European Research Group. But as I said on Friday’s Coffee House Shots podcast, it was wrong to mistake this for Sunak backing off from an agreement entirely. Instead, the sense in government has been that this is an issue that cannot be kicked into the long grass.
Does Sunak have the authority to push his plan through – or will it leave him badly wounded?
It’s not just that Sunak could have looked weak to go some way up the hill only to march back down. It’s that the Prime Minister views fixing the protocol as key to strengthening the Union, getting Brexit (truly) done and making progress on issues that involve EU co-operation such as small boats and security.
Yet this is not to say he will succeed in achieving all of the above. This is a risky move for the Prime Minister. He has plenty of supporters who have suggested he ought to stay away from the issue entirely given how fragile the parliamentary coalition is. Sunak, too, is choosing to press on without the prior consent of the DUP – even though most Tory MPs will mark the success of this deal on whether it restores power sharing at Stormont. The hope in No. 10 is that when the text is released – and lawyers for all sides go over it – the DUP will, at the very least, not actively oppose it.
In No. 10, aides believe the deal meets the seven tests the DUP set out for any protocol deal. However, the fact that Sunak has not kept the DUP updated throughout the process has led to some bad will between the two sides. Members of the European Research Group of Tory Brexiteers cite a continuing role for the ECJ as the biggest issue. Meanwhile DUP politicians are most concerned that the new deal will still leave Northern Ireland having to apply some single-market rules on goods that would not be applicable in the rest of the UK.
Given Keir Starmer has already said Labour will back any deal and no vote is technically required, Sunak does not need to worry about passing it in a Commons vote. Yet if a vote is either brought by No. 10 or forced by MPs, it could wound Sunak if it shows he has had to rely on Labour votes to pass his plan.
Sunak also risks his predecessors in No. 10 coming out against it. Boris Johnson has made no secret of his reservations, suggesting Sunak would be best placed to stick with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill which unilaterally overrides parts of the agreement. However, given the Protocol is part of an international agreement, even if the bill became law the EU can still sue the UK over breaches in an international court.
The next few days will show whether Sunak has the authority to push his plan through – or whether it will leave him badly wounded.
Sunak and Von der Leyen to meet as Brexit deal nears
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26.02.2023
A new deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol is imminent. On Monday, Rishi Sunak will meet with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen as the Prime Minister prepares to announce changes to the Protocol. In a joint statement between the two sides, a meeting has been confirmed:
Today, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Rishi Sunak agreed to continue their work in person towards shared, practical solutions for the range of complex challenges around the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland. President von der Leyen will therefore meet with the Prime Minister in the UK tomorrow.
While No. 10 still insists that nothing has been finalised, the increasing sense among government aides and senior ministers is that a deal is close to being announced as early as Monday. Last week, Sunak delayed plans to announce a deal as he grappled with........
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