When Rishi Sunak appeared in the House of Commons to outline the details of his new agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol, one politician was conspicuous by his absence. Over the past few weeks, Boris Johnson had been warning that Sunak was making a mistake in his dealings with Brussels. His words were taken by MPs and journalists as evidence that he was preparing to lead the rebellion against a deal. But on the day, the would-be rebel leader was nowhere to be found. ‘It’s very Boris to march an army up a hill and then be missing in action,’ says a minister.
Johnson’s retreat reflects the changing power balance in the party. A new Brexit deal had been viewed as a moment of peril for Sunak and an opportunity for Johnson. The Prime Minister would look soft on an issue that has brought down several predecessors, thereby allowing Johnson to rally the right of the party and begin his comeback.
‘Rishi has oddly enough just had his best week as Prime Minister’
The new agreement – given the patriotic name of the ‘Windsor Framework’ – has won praise across the Tory party, generally seen as a better deal than Johnson was able to negotiate. There have been no government resignations. Even members of the European Research Group – who plan to wait a week before deciding whether to back it – privately admit Sunak has secured more concessions than they expected. The former Tory party leader Michael Howard, a Brexiteer, has said Johnson ‘would have bitten Michel Barnier’s hand off’ for such a deal.
The introduction of a Stormont brake – a unionist veto over new EU rules – is among the measures heralded as significant progress, although there are questions over the circumstance in which it could be used. Sunak’s claim that the deal has ‘removed any sense of a border in the Irish sea’ is also debated, but there is a consensus that checks will be at the very least drastically reduced.
Johnson, who has called several parliamentary colleagues in recent days to sense the mood, may end up regretting intervening at all. ‘Rishi has oddly enough just had his best week as Prime Minister,’ says one MP in the middle of the party. ‘A lot of colleagues are pleasantly surprised.’ A former cabinet minister says: ‘With Boris there would be a lot of fire and fury and then the result could be disappointing. With Rishi, he kept things very tight, played it down and then delivered.’
All this puts Sunak’s technocratic tendencies in a different light. In his first 100 days the Prime Minister was accused by both Labour and his own MPs of being weak – giving in to rebels to avoid a showdown and lacking authority. Now he has picked a fight and didn’t blink. ‘This is the beginning of a new chapter for Rishi,’ says one optimistic government adviser.
Yet there is still some way to go. Sunak must hold a vote on the agreement. No. 10 is still deciding when and in what form this will be – it could be non-binding or on statutory instruments. Ministers are keen to avoid anything that allows MPs to add amendments and try to change the deal. Since Keir Starmer has said Labour backs the deal, a win looks near certain for the Prime Minister, yet he could still suffer an unhelpful rebellion. Ministers hope that this can be contained to fewer than 40 Tory MPs.
The DUP is yet to return a verdict. Some in government anticipate a scenario in which the party never offers one, and then once the arrangement comes into force unionists find a less contentious reason to restore power at Stormont. The ERG is divided. When the group met on Tuesday, figures such as Bernard Jenkin were downbeat, questioning the differences between UK and EU versions of the text and asking whether Sunak has oversold it. Yet others argued that, given the deal was undeniably an improvement on the status quo, it was hard to make a case against it.
As well as improving Sunak’s personal standing, the framework has the potential to help the government on several key issues. First, the Union. After the EU referendum result, there was a popular narrative that Brexit would break up the UK. But events in the past month suggest otherwise.
While there is yet to be a return to power-sharing in Northern Ireland, the deal restores the balance of the Good Friday Agreement, which is an important step. Equally, the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon – after the government issued a Section 35 order on her gender recognition bill – is damaging to the Scottish independence movement. The favourite to succeed her, Humza Yousaf, has said he is not ‘wedded’ to using the general election as a de facto referendum, as Sturgeon had intended.
The Windsor Framework has also helped reset relations with the EU. Ursula von der Leyen showed her support for Sunak at the press conference when she referred to the Prime Minister as ‘Dear Rishi’. She is seen by some in government as an Anglophile, which helps explains why she was so keen to meet with the King on her trip this week.
No. 10 believes the next step is to improve relations with other EU partners. France is top of the list. Next week, Sunak will meet President Emmanuel Macron at the first Franco-British bilateral summit since 2018 to talk about the small boats crisis.
The importance of preventing illegal Channel crossings is not lost on Sunak. When he addressed his backbenchers at a meeting of the 1922 Committee, he was given a warm reception as MPs banged on desks. There were a handful of tricky questions, but most were positive. Yet the most common refrain was: ‘What next?’
Assembled backbenchers – such as Red Wall MP Jonathan Gullis – said the framework was all very well but it would not do much to improve Tory support in their constituencies. Few voters in Stoke-on-Trent spend their days thinking about Northern Ireland. Instead, they want progress on domestic issues – in particular, stopping the boats.
Sunak responded by promising boats legislation in the coming weeks. The purpose of the legislation is to ensure those who arrive illegally are detained and deported in a matter of days by closing down the ways they can claim asylum. ‘The party is very expectant on this bill,’ says a government source.
Thanks to this week’s developments, Sunak finally has momentum behind him. But to really improve his party’s outlook, he must use it to push through his priorities.
Politics / Rishi’s new momentum
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02.03.2023
When Rishi Sunak appeared in the House of Commons to outline the details of his new agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol, one politician was conspicuous by his absence. Over the past few weeks, Boris Johnson had been warning that Sunak was making a mistake in his dealings with Brussels. His words were taken by MPs and journalists as evidence that he was preparing to lead the rebellion against a deal. But on the day, the would-be rebel leader was nowhere to be found. ‘It’s very Boris to march an army up a hill and then be missing in action,’ says a minister.
Johnson’s retreat reflects the changing power balance in the party. A new Brexit deal had been viewed as a moment of peril for Sunak and an opportunity for Johnson. The Prime Minister would look soft on an issue that has brought down several predecessors, thereby allowing Johnson to rally the right of the party and begin his comeback.
‘Rishi has oddly enough just had his best week as Prime Minister’
The new agreement – given the patriotic name of the ‘Windsor Framework’ – has won praise across the Tory party, generally seen as a better deal than Johnson was able to negotiate. There have been no government resignations. Even members of the European Research Group – who plan to wait a week before deciding whether to back it – privately admit Sunak has secured more concessions than they expected. The former Tory party leader Michael Howard, a Brexiteer, has said Johnson ‘would have bitten Michel Barnier’s hand off’ for such a deal.
The introduction of a Stormont brake – a unionist........
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