Boris Johnson was reselected on Thursday night as the Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. Yet the future of his parliamentary career could be decided next week when he appears before the privileges committee. The former prime minister is facing a Commons inquiry into whether he knowingly misled parliament over partygate, the alleged Covid rule breaches in Downing Street during lockdown.

If the committee finds against Johnson, he could soon face a big parliamentary problem

On Wednesday afternoon, Johnson will appear before the seven MPs who make up the committee. The panel is led by Labour’s Harriet Harman along with four Tory MPs – Charles Walker, Bernard Jenkin, Alberto Costa and Andy Carter, one more Labour MP Yvonne Fovargue, and the SNP’s Allan Dorans. Johnson will face questions as to what he knew and when with the initial report by the committee (which has been gathering evidence) finding that members of Johnson’s own team struggled to argue that the gatherings were within the rules.

Johnson will mount a defence of himself – arguing that he was following the advice of his team in the comments he made on partygate in the Commons chamber and that it was reasonable to act on the information and guidance he was given by senior members of his team. His legal defence has been led by Lord Pannick KC, who has previously questioned the committee’s decisions. Pannick is expected to accompany Johnson to the session on Wednesday. Johnson’s MP backers have gone further, suggesting that the whole inquiry amounts to a ‘kangaroo court’. The fact that Sue Gray – who led the original investigation into partygate – has been offered a role with Keir Starmer’s team has been cited as further evidence of the establishment being against Johnson.

Yet if the committee finds against Johnson, he could soon face a big parliamentary problem – even if he and his supporters find success in the media. The worst case scenario for Johnson is that the committee finds him guilty as charged and recommends a Commons suspension as punishment. If the recommended suspension amounts to ten sitting days or more, then Johnson would be vulnerable to a recall petition. If signed by more than ten per cent of his constituents it would trigger a by-election. Johnson currently has a majority of around 7,000.

If the committee recommends a suspension, MPs would have to vote on it first to approve it. When former Conservative MP Owen Paterson faced such a suspension in 2021, Johnson decided that Tory MPs ought to vote against it – but later U-turned under pressure. Rishi Sunak has already said that in such a scenario, MPs would have a free vote so could vote how they like on the issue.

However, given the opposition would back such a measure and many Tory MPs remain scarred by the Paterson debacle, the odds would not be good for Johnson avoiding punishment in such a scenario. It’s why the former prime minister and his supporters will be doing everything they can in the coming week to try to avoid it getting to that point in the first place.