Ahead of Rishi Sunak unveiling his revised deal on the Protocol, there was no shortage of Tory MPs – including some close allies – warning him to stay away from the issue. The thinking was that a row over Brexit would risk reopening old wounds and give Boris Johnson the chance to mount a comeback by depicting Sunak as weak on a key issue. Now this scenario could still come to pass. but a few hours after Sunak’s announcement, things are going better than many in No. 10 dared hope.
Despite reports that Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker has been on resignation watch in recent days, the eurosceptic MP has come out in favour of Sunak’s, deal hailing it a huge achievement. Former Brexit secretary David Davis agrees. He has waxed lyrical in the Commons debate on the ‘Windsor Framework’, describing it as a ‘remarkable success’ which means the Prime Minister has ‘done much better than his predecessors’. The Commons debate has so far seen no public criticism of the deal from Tory MPs. Instead. Sunak has been received warmly.
As for the DUP, the party’s leader has not endorsed the deal by any means, but he has also not come out against it. Speaking in the Commons, Jeffrey Donaldson said the new deal represents ‘significant progress’ but ‘key issues of concern’ remain so they will be examining the documents in detail in the coming days. DUP MP Iain Paisley Jr has been more hostile suggesting he suspects it won’t be enough. However, it’s worth noting Downing Street would view anything short of a direct rebuke as a relative success on the path back to power-sharing.
Now – as ever with Brexit deals – there is till plenty of scope for things to go pear-shaped for the Prime Minister. There are reports that Boris Johnson – who is biding his time before making a public intervention – has urged the DUP to tread with caution before backing the deal. This has led to some comedy responses within government given Johnson ultimately pressed ahead with a deal the DUP actively opposed and called a betrayal. Key members of the European Research Group, too, plan to wait before announcing their verdict as they digest the details. But the mood so far in the House of Commons is encouraging for Sunak.