A deal on the Northern Ireland protocol could be imminent – if the various factions agree. Rishi Sunak is this evening flying to Northern Ireland in a bid to sell the new deal on the protocol to the Democratic Unionist party. The Prime Minister is expected to hold talks in Belfast before meeting with the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend.

Already there are warning shots from the DUP. The party’s chief whip has said: ‘Anything which does not deal with the democractic deficit and the imposition of EU law on Northern Ireland will not get our support.’ The role of the European Court of Justice is the most contentious aspect for both the DUP and Tory Brexiteers. There are some MPs supportive of Sunak who think the Prime Minister is best to steer away from the topic all together. ‘I think it is mad to try to do this,’ says an MP who backed Sunak over the summer. ‘The five priorities never mentioned it. Unless you have the DUP onside, don’t bother’.

The worry is it opens a sore with the right of the party – making governing harder and potentially allowing Boris Johnson to gather supporters should he fancy a comeback. There are concerns that the former prime minister could stage a public intervention if he decides the agreement doesn’t cut muster. While there isn’t necessarily a vote on any agreement, government aides are aware that MPs can usually find a way to force one. It would expose internal divisions.

However, in Downing Street the issue is viewed as critical to showing how the Tories can govern. In 2019, the Tories promised to get Brexit done, having ongoing issues with the protocol felt in Northern Ireland and beyond suggests this is not the case. An unresolved matter threatens to overshadow parliamentary issues – with MPs already pushing for the Prime Minister to unilaterally override the agreement and risk a trade war with Brussels. Recent polling found Labour has a one-point lead – at 17 to 16 – on managing Brexit. 52 per cent don’t know. It means there is a political incentive to fix any issues.

Those on the government side stress that nothing is yet decided – there is a chance no deal comes to pass. The coming days will decide whether Sunak’s judgment is right.