IDF troops have continued to push further into southern Lebanon this week, encountering determined but not particularly effectual resistance from Hezbollah. But while the Iranian proxy group appears unable to prevent the movement of the IDF on the ground in Lebanon, it is succeeding in launching large amounts of ordnance at Israel from further north. 600 projectiles were launched at Israel over a 24 hour period between Wednesday and Thursday. There was only one fatality thanks to Israel’s air defences and drills.  

On the other side, the Lebanese government has reported over 1,000 dead. It doesn’t differentiate between civilian and Hezbollah casualties. Israel says it has killed around 700 Hezbollah fighters. A number of prisoners from the Shia Islamist group have also been taken. Four IDF soldiers so far have been killed in the operation.  

The fighting in Lebanon constitutes one front in the ongoing region-wide war between Israel and Iran. This war overlaps with the US-Iran contest but is not identical to it. For the US, the de facto Iranian seizure of the Strait of Hormuz and whether and how this will be reversed now looms as the central issue of the war. The Trump administration appears to want to ‘declare victory and leave’, wrapping up the engagement in advance of the President’s scheduled meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on 14 May.

In the cases of Gaza and Lebanon, the threat to Israel is from Iran-supported ‘muqawama’ militias

In the cases of Gaza and Lebanon, the threat to Israel is from Iran-supported ‘muqawama’ militias

The current dilemma facing the US is that there is no way to credibly declare victory if the Iranians are still deciding what can and cannot pass through Hormuz. But changing that situation risks embroilment in a longer and costlier conflict that the administration doesn’t........

© The Spectator