How America could help bring down Iran's Islamist regime |
The near-total internet blackout imposed by the regime in Iran has now continued for nearly a week. Behind the veiled effort to cut the country off from the world, sufficient evidence has emerged to establish a clear picture of what the authorities are attempting.
In a move wearyingly familiar to all observers of the contemporary Middle East, the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran are seeking first to isolate the masses of protestors now in the streets demanding an end to their regime. Then, under the cover of the resulting darkness, they are slaughtering a sufficient number of them so as to drive the remainder back into a terrified silence.
As of now, estimates of the numbers killed in the last week range from 12,000 (the number claimed by Iranian opposition sources) to 2,000 (the number acknowledged by the authorities). The true number probably lies somewhere in between. Even the lower figure would reflect an astonishing level of brutality on the part of the regime, which clearly understands that it is in a fight for its life. The Iranian authorities have now begun to issue death sentences to apprehended protestors convicted in hurried ‘trials’ of ‘moharabeh’ (enmity against God).
History has no examples of regimes being brought down by air power alone
If the current balance of forces between the regime and the protestors remains constant, the regime does not appear in imminent danger of collapse. Only increased external involvement might shift the balance.
While there are undoubtedly sharp differences of opinion within the ruling elite regarding the proper strategy to adopt toward the unrest, this does not appear to be producing a real fissure. Most importantly, as of now, no evidence has emerged of large-scale defections among those elements tasked with repressing the protests or who are capable of forming an alternative centre of coercive force on........