The electoral turmoil in France threatens its status as a world power. Friendly nations are despairing; rivals and enemies are gloating, even circling.
France is the world’s seventh-largest economic power, a prominent Nato member, a member of the UN Security Council and the EU’s leader on foreign and defence issues. It has the fifth largest strategic nuclear force and the fifth largest navy, a ‘tier one’ military and one of the highly effective ‘Nine Eyes’ intelligence services.
Last year France was the world’s second largest arms exporter. It controls the third largest global undersea cables network and has the second largest coastal economic area, whose confetti territories give it a global strategic toe-hold. Her ‘France-Afrique’ presence has shrunk under Emmanuel Macron, but the Francophonie commonwealth of nations secures UN votes. Strategic assets of this magnitude aren’t easily equalled.
France’s political plight invites Moscow to go further and test the resolve of the French military
Macron’s presidency has been woeful internationally, with its unpredictable and vainglorious posturing. But his most egregious decision was to dissolve the National Assembly last month. It may put France into a domestic fog for three years, risking exposing international vulnerabilities and threatening precious assets.
France’s executive functions smoothly when the prime minister and president are of the same political........