Latin America / How to stop Venezuela from becoming Iraq |
Will the Venezuela adventure end up like Afghanistan, or will it be another Iraq? In the eyes of most commentators, those seem to be the only options, both of which cost trillions of dollars and thousands of lives while achieving little, especially in the case of Afghanistan.
It is clear that if Venezuela is to be the success story that the White House would like to see, there can be no alternative to the Panama model
Some have also thrown in the example of the 2011 overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, after which the rule of law collapsed, human trafficking thrived and instability spread across the region. One analyst even cited Operation Uphold Democracy of 1994, which deepened Haiti’s dependence on foreign aid and left it one of the most dangerous, unstable and impoverished states on Earth.
It would seem that prospects aren’t good for the Venezuelans. Having reported from that benighted country on the ground, I dug out the number of my local fixer. ‘Everyone was very anxious yesterday. The streets were empty,’ he told me over WhatsApp. ‘Today, we expect the same.’ It would be difficult to persuade anybody in the country to appear on my podcast, The Brink, he added, as the climate of fear was too intense.
They are right to be apprehensive. For some reason, however, most observers seem to have overlooked the most relevant historical example, which also happens to be the one that offers not just a blueprint for the rebuilding of Venezuela but a significant source of hope.
Let’s talk about Panama. On December 20, 1989, under the direction of George Bush senior, the United States invaded with overwhelming force and quickly toppled the authoritarian regime of General Manuel Noreiga, a convicted drugs trafficker, who had presided over a banana republic. So far, so similar.
Fast-forward to the present day and we find a thriving liberal democracy, one of the most stable countries in the region. Panama – which is separated from Venezuela only by Colombia – benefits from historically low inflation, high wages and the highest GDP per capita of any........