Why have all eyes been on Rafah? We have been led to believe that the intense focus on a town the size of Rochdale in southern Gaza derives from purely humanitarian concerns, as if any Israeli operation there would trigger a civilian catastrophe on the scale of Rwanda or Darfur. Take a closer look, though, and this narrative quickly falls apart.
The Israeli operation taking place as I write is remarkable. According to Colonel Richard Kemp, the former commander of British forces who is closely following the conflict in Gaza, the current casualty ratio in Rafah is about one civilian for every ten combatants killed, which is several orders of magnitude more humane than any conflict in history. This was achieved after Israel successfully evacuated a million displaced people from the town, despite the American-led international community wailing for months that such a move was impossible. What is going on?
In all likelihood, the fall of Rafah will mean the end of Hamas as a meaningful fighting force
One giveaway is the behaviour of Egypt. By maintaining a discreet silence for most of the war, it has ducked difficult questions about the way it has kept its border sealed to Gazan refugees (unless they are able to pay $5,000 (£3,900) a head). With all eyes on Israel, Cairo has also managed to avoid scrutiny over the tunnels burrowing from its sovereign territory into Rafah, which for years have been the main conduit through which Hamas has received its arms. Egyptian military elites have enriched themselves by facilitating this trade, quietly keeping Hamas’s lifeline open while supposedly maintaining security cooperation with Israel, with which they have signed a peace agreement.
So far, Israeli forces have uncovered and destroyed about 20 such tunnels, one every 650 yards along the border. Such an embarrassing discovery – and the end of years of lucrative backhanders – explains why the looming Israeli operation caused Egypt to panic. In a last-ditch attempt to head it off, Cairo announced last........