Sir Keir Starmer’s announcement last February that the government would increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP from April 2027 seems a long time ago. It was trumpeted as the ‘biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War’, but in fact represented a very modest rise from the 2.3 per cent of 2024/25. Events of the past year have now left it looking cautious and inadequate. As a direct consequence of this measly funding, Britain now looks set to lose out on the opportunity to update its stock of military helicopters, putting jobs – and the country’s defence – at risk.

In recent days, we learnt that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) estimates it will need another £28 billion over the next four years to meet the commitments it has set out. This includes making the ‘step-change in British defence’ laid out in last June’s strategic defence review (SDR). The Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, set this out to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer at a meeting shortly before Christmas. Starmer was reported to be unhappy and disappointed, having believed that the SDR had been fully costed. It is, however, unclear whether Starmer persuaded himself of this implausible scenario due to inattention, a basic failure of understanding or an impressive degree of self-deception.

What credibility the government had is draining away quickly, perhaps........

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