Andrew Connon: Ellon farmer says North Sea oil must keep flowing |
Food security is no longer a distant or theoretical concern – it is under constant pressure from global threats that directly affect Scottish farming.
From rising geopolitical tensions and energy volatility to the ongoing challenges of labour shortages, climate extremes and biosecurity threats, our food supply can no longer be taken for granted.
2026 marks 25 years since the devastating foot and mouth outbreak of 2001.
It still sends a shiver down the spine. Livestock movements ceased overnight, markets fell silent and pyres burned across the countryside.
Families who had spent generations building herds and flocks watched them vanish in days. In excess of six million animals were slaughtered.
The emotional toll was immense – stress, isolation and the long struggle to rebuild.
Years of breeding destroyed
I remember looking south and witnessing the devastation that was going on.
Years of breeding destroyed, whole flocks and herds taken out, with gut-wrenching impacts on those affected. These memories remain raw for many families and they serve as a powerful reminder of why vigilance, preparation and rapid response remain absolutely critical today.
Even the strongest farms and communities are only as resilient as the systems protecting them.
Vigilance and preparedness are never optional.
Scotland faces a widening array of global pressures, from avian influenza to disruption in Iran and Eastern Europe, all while responding to growing consumer demand for fresh, high-quality produce.
The recent outbreaks of avian influenza are a stark reminder that biosecurity threats have not diminished; they have evolved.
Disease risk remains ever-present, capable of closing markets overnight and undermining months, even years of careful production planning.
Rising fuel prices and constrained fertiliser supplies feed directly into farm input costs.”
Rising fuel prices and constrained fertiliser supplies feed directly into farm input costs.”
At the same time, energy and fertiliser markets, both deeply intertwined with international politics and conflict, are increasingly volatile.
Rising fuel prices and constrained fertiliser supplies, partly driven by geopolitical tensions around Iran and wider instability across Eastern Europe, feed directly into farm input costs.
For primary producers operating on tight margins these shocks are not abstract global events.
They are immediate financial pressures, impacts on profitability which ripple through to food prices and household budgets.
We need domestic resilience
This reality reinforces the strategic importance of strengthening domestic resilience.
Responsibly developing our own energy resources, including those in the North Sea, is not simply an economic argument – it is an energy security argument.
Our North Sea oil and gas reserves should continue to be developed, ensuring continuity of supply.
There is no justification or common sense in shutting down this industry and importing more from abroad in order to reduce our emissions.
Shutting down North Sea oil and gas industry now would be reckless
All that achieves is offshoring our emissions. It threatens our energy security and is nothing short of recklessness by governments.
A stable and affordable energy supply underpins fertiliser production, transport, processing and, ultimately, the viability of Scotland’s farming sector. Without it, we expose ourselves to avoidable vulnerability.
Delays in confronting these challenges are not merely inconvenient; they carry consequences.
Preparedness is prudence
Hesitation in policy, uncertainty in direction and failure to invest in resilience place additional strain on farmers and crofters who are already navigating climate pressures, market volatility and regulatory change.
The cost of inaction will, ultimately, be borne not just by producers, but by consumers and rural communities across Scotland.
In a world of increasing uncertainty, preparedness is not pessimism – it is prudence.
And Scotland’s farmers deserve a policy environment which recognises that reality.
Changing consumer behaviour offers farmers and crofters new opportunity
Meanwhile, as we balance these threats, consumer behaviour is evolving rapidly.
Retailers report growing demand for fresh, local, nutrient-rich foods.
Tesco, for example, has highlighted a 6.6% year-on-year increase in fresh food sales in January alone.
Appetite-suppressing medications and a greater focus on health-conscious choices are influencing these trends.
For Scottish farmers and crofters, this shift presents an opportunity.
By supplying fresh, high-quality, locally grown produce, we can meet consumer expectations while strengthening domestic food security.
Scottish agriculture is not just about production – it underpins our rural economy, sustains communities and forms the backbone of our wider food and drink industry.
It’s a sector that’s worth £19 billion and employs more than 120,000 people.
Protecting this industry is critical to Scotland’s prosperity.
And crucially, it is about ensuring the next generation sees a future worth investing in, one where farming and crofting remains profitable, valued and resilient for decades to come.
Andrew Connon farms near Ellon, Aberdeenshire, and is president of NFU Scotland.