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Afghanistan: what next?

168 14 0
11.07.2021

In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘political solution’ to the Afghan quagmire is low. In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘diplomatic solution’ to the Afghan impasse is even lower. In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘power-sharing formula’ is also low. In my considered opinion, the probability of a ‘military solution’ is high.

America – and India – have both been defeated in Afghanistan. The Taliban have been on a winning streak – and victory has its own dynamics. The probability of a ‘civil war’ is high unless the Afghan government falls in the near future. And, a long drawn-out civil war is not in anyone’s interest, especially Pakistan’s. America’s real concern is transnational terrorism originating in Afghanistan – and as long as that does not happen America could care........

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