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Guest Essay

By Jason Furman

Mr. Furman, a contributing Opinion writer, was the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

Economic data never tells a perfectly clear story, but lately the contradictions have been especially jarring. Just a week apart, the government delivered two sharply conflicting messages. One report showed job growth stalling and unemployment rising. Another showed the economy expanding at a blistering 4.3 percent annual rate — more than double the pace of the first half of the year.

Are we sliding toward recession or entering a new boom?

The uncomfortable answer is that the data is unusually foggy (and foggy because of the normal challenges of measuring a large and complicated economy; I have no reason to suspect the data was politicized). There are three plausible interpretations — and while the........

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