Forget Trump’s Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China’s Trade Surplus. |
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Guest Essay
By Eswar Prasad
Mr. Prasad is a professor of trade policy in the Dyson School at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
China’s trade surplus — the amount by which its exports exceed its imports — hit a staggering $1.19 trillion in 2025, according to official numbers released on Wednesday. The figure shows just how much China is an exporting powerhouse but is also a sign of its economic weakness and of how its practices pose a greater danger to free trade than even President Trump’s tariffs.
The tariffs undoubtedly took a hammer to free trade. With the United States retreating from its leadership role, China has tried to assume the mantle of being the promoter of globalization and the defender of the multilateral rules-based system that underpins global trade (which, incidentally, the United States played a major role in setting up).
China’s........