‘Time Is Not on Russia’s Side’

Four long years. That’s how long Ukraine has been fighting for its life against Russia.

The sheer scale and ferocity of the conflict is hard for us to comprehend. Russia has lost a staggering number of men. The Economist estimates that total Russian casualties number between 1.1 and 1.4 million. Between 230,000 and 430,000 Russians have died. That’s one in 25 Russian men between the ages of 18 and 49 who’ve probably been killed or seriously wounded since the war began.

Ukrainian losses have been far less severe in absolute numbers, but worse as a percentage of the population. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that Ukraine has suffered 600,000 total casualties as of December, including between 100,000 and 140,000 dead. That’s a one-in-16 ratio of deaths, injuries and missing cases for men between 18 and 49.

It’s hard to grasp the scale of the losses, but it’s also hard to grasp the nature of this war. It’s a war unlike any other, where drones can sometimes outnumber people on the front lines, and even the concept of a true front line is fading away as both armies adapt to drone warfare.

On this fourth anniversary of the Russian attack, I reached out to one of the analysts of the war whom I respect the most — Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Kofman is that rare combination — a rigorous scholar and a courageous journalist, an expert who has spent a serious amount of time in the field.

The focus of our conversation is military, not political. There’s a good reason for that — once the battle is joined, military results tend to dictate political realities.

Normally, I’d say that I hope you enjoy our conversation, but “enjoy” is the wrong word here. The topic is too grim. I learned from our talk and I hope you will too. I gained greater appreciation for the nature of the war, the challenges both sides face, and why Russia isn’t ready to seek peace, but Ukraine is.

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David French is an Opinion columnist, writing about law, culture, religion and armed conflict. He is a veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and a former constitutional litigator. His most recent book is “Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore Our Nation.” You can follow him on Threads (@davidfrenchjag).

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