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What will drive Australia’s future prosperity?

16 6
22.07.2024

Last week, I shared my excitement about the new global population data published by the UN Population Division.

This week we will explore the data a bit more to see how global population data impacts the economic fortunes of Australia.

Global population is determined by the two variables of births and deaths. Since we will all die eventually (I hope I didn’t spoil the ending for you), the more important variable is births.

Births are measured either in total number of births or in the total fertility rate (TFR). This measure is often casually referred to as a nation’s birth rate. That’s incorrect but who cares.

The TFR describes the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime. A global TFR of around 2.1 children is called the replacement rate and translates to a more or less stable global population. Whether the population actually ends up being stable depends on the number of deaths that occur.

Once the global TFR falls below 2.1, we know that human population will peak a few decades later. As the chart below shows, the UN expects the TFR to fall below 2.1 in a few short decades.

When exactly depends on........

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