Who is voting One Nation? Poll reveals SA hotspots |
With just a day left in the South Australian election campaign, exclusive polling shows how much the Liberals stand to lose and who is voting for One Nation.
State Liberal leader Ashton Hurn remains more popular than One Nation leader Cory Bernardi, despite SA’s embattled Liberal Party facing an orange surge in the regions, according to polling from DemosAU/Ace Strategies.
The same poll also showed a dip in Labor support of 6 per cent across SA from a poll last month. DemosAU research head George Hasanakos attributed the drop to competition from One Nation and a host of independents, but said Labor was still on track “for a big victory” in Saturday’s election.
Hasanakos said while there was less negativity toward Hurn, her popularity had not grown enough throughout the campaign to turn things around for the Liberals.
The latest polling – conducted from March 12-18 with a sample size of 1242 SA voters – found Hurn had turned her net negative rating of -2 per cent in February to a net neutral.
The popularity of Premier and Labor leader Peter Malinauskas, meanwhile, has dropped from 51 per cent in February to 49 per cent in March.
Bernardi is more polarising, with 36 per cent of SA voters feeling negatively towards him, and only 20 per cent positive, giving him a net negative position.
The polling period came after Bernardi’s comments about Aboriginal place naming and repeating his controversial views comparing homosexuality to “bestiality” emerged earlier in March.
A breakdown of the primary vote by region showed One Nation leads the Liberals in regional and rural SA – with 39 per cent of the vote compared to the Liberals’ 15 per cent.
Hasanakos said the regional/rural breakdown “may be too flattering for One Nation” and the big question on Saturday night would be how many votes the party, headed by Queenslander Pauline Hanson, nets overall.
He said the surge in One Nation support could mean the Liberals, as earlier polls indicated, were at risk of being replaced as the official opposition.
Hasanakos said the most vulnerable regional seats likely to fall to One Nation were those like Liberal Sam Telfer’s seat of Flinders on the Eyre Peninsula and Liberal Tim Whetstone’s seat of Chaffey in the Riverland. Independent Lou Nicholson could also successfully unseat Finniss Liberal David Basham on the Fleurieu Peninsula.
“The Labor vote has fallen throughout the campaign as One Nation’s momentum has grown and numerous independents and minor parties have thrown their hat in the ring,” he said.
The polling indicated 39 per cent of regional voters would back One Nation.
One Nation was less popular with over-55s than Labor, with 25 per cent of that demographic saying they would vote One Nation. A further 21 per cent opted for the Liberals and 39 per cent for Labor.
In outer metro areas, 38 per cent of voters intended to vote Labor, 24 per cent One Nation and 15 per cent for the Liberals.
Hasanakos said though the Labor vote had fallen since last month’s poll, both the Liberals and One Nation struggled to compete with Malinauskas, who is still polling reasonably well with over-55s and those on both sides of the political spectrum.
“When people in the right of politics are very anti somebody on the left, then preferences will flow very strongly. But we just don’t see that animosity there towards Malinauskas that we may have seen with [former Victorian premier] Dan Andrews or even [Prime Minister] Anthony Albanese,” Hasanakos said.
“If you had a more left-wing Labour leader, they wouldn’t be this far ahead.”
Hasanakos said Malinauskas has “been successful whilst appealing to the centre and holding his left flank”.
“You would think Malinauskas would alienate people on the left and the Greens would do better,” he said.
“But when we break down the voters by whether they declare themselves left-wing, right-wing, centrist, or they don’t know, among left-wing voters Labor still leads the Greens.”
Asked about the trend in the polls, a Liberal Party spokesperson said, “people are turning off politics and politicians because they’re sick of big promises being broken”.
“The simple truth is Labor has failed on its signature election policy and isn’t getting the important things right,” the spokesperson said.
“The Liberal team is putting forward positive, fully costed policies that have practical ways to make life more affordable. Minor parties haven’t done the same.”
The DemosAU/Ace Strategies polls surveyed 1242 South Australians on their views from March 12-18, 2026. It has an effective margin of error of +/- 3.4 per cent.
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