What 2026 may bring for China-Aus relationship |
When Labor was returned to power in 2022, the China-Australia relationship began to stabilise after what had been a rocky few years.
So, where do things stand now, on the precipice of a new year? To understand what to expect in 2026, we interviewed several scholars in Australia and China.
Some Chinese scholars we spoke with pointed out a stable relationship does not necessarily mean a friendly one. One tension point they cited was what they see as Canberra’s efforts to help the US limit China’s growing regional influence — especially in the Pacific.
Yet, Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s emphasis on what she calls the “four Rs” — region, relationships, rules and resilience — has shown Australia is no longer seeking to be solely reliant on US security.
Rather, since US President Donald Trump’s return to office, Canberra is pursuing more independent, regionally-led security initiatives.
This approach has not gone unnoticed by our Chinese interviewees. During our time in China in the past year, many scholars described Australia’s policies to stabilise relations with China as pragmatic and realistic. They believe Canberra has aligned — at least in part — with China’s interests on trade and cooperation.
As Xu Shaoming, an associate professor in international relations at Sun Yat-sen University, told us, the core of the relationship is still marked by complexity. There’s cooperation in certain areas, competition in others.
The key determinants of the strength of the relationship, he says, are communication and policy interaction. If these can continue to be front and centre in 2026, the China-Australia relationship can flourish.
Last year started with a tense moment when a Chinese naval fleet conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea and circumnavigated Australia on the way home. The........