Peter Dutton is absolutely right that Labor has little prospect of achieving its target of a 43 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.

His cunning plan is to give up and oppose it, while using nuclear power to stick with net zero by 2050, which is far enough in the future that nuclear isn’t entirely laughable and keeps the Nationals in the tent.

Also, Dutton will be 79 in 2050 and long retired, so he won’t have to wear the backlash over higher power bills from nuclear reactors.

2024 is the year that matters, and nuclear gets him to an election against the ALP and teal independents with a policy of net zero, without which the Coalition would be drowned under NSW flood waters, and cooked in next summer’s bushfires.

Nuclear has its own electoral difficulties, of course, but hey … net zero!

The other problem with just giving up on 43 per cent by 2030 is that in two years’ time Europe will start its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), or carbon tariff, making imports from countries without an effective carbon price and/or low emissions uncompetitive.

It’s true that only about 11 per cent of Australia’s exports go to Europe, but that’s not nothing, and in any case there’s likely to be CBAM dominoes after Europe does it. Will we really just bet that China won’t do it, ever?

As for Labor, neither 43 per cent by 2030 nor net zero by 2050 is achievable without moving households from gas to electricity, soon. This is the real “Future Gas Strategy” that’s needed.

The current plan of just forcing big industrial emitters to cut by 5 per cent a year mainly by buying........

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