What Would a US-Iran ‘Peace Deal’ Look Like? |
What Would a US-Iran ‘Peace Deal’ Look Like?
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The path to a diplomatic resolution of the ongoing US-Iran conflict is far from clear, given the vast gap in the two sides’ negotiating positions.
The current ceasefire between the United States and Iran is not a resolution to the conflict. It is a procedural pause—a 14-day window featuring high-stakes negotiations aimed towards closing the wide gap still existing between both sides.
The weekend’s discussions in Islamabad, Pakistan, with delegations led by US vice president JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, were unproductive and failed to reach a settlement. However, the ceasefire remains in effect, and further negotiations could take place before the war resumes. In the interim, Trump has declared that the United States will “blockade” the Strait of Hormuz in order to prevent oil tankers from traveling to and from Iran.
The negotiations are structured around three core issues:
Iran’s nuclear program;
The status of the Strait of Hormuz; and
Regional proxy conflicts across the Middle East, in which Iran has played an outsized role.
Each issue contains major divergence between parties with limited overlap. That means a single unified deal may be unlikely, as parallel conflicts exist within the one negotiation.
Issue #1: Iran’s........