Why the Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Won’t Hold |
Why the Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Won’t Hold
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Israel’s unattainable goal of disarming Hezbollah will likely keep the conflict in Lebanon hot.
Washington hosted the first direct talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1993 on April 14, marking the latest effort to expand the Abraham Accords and bring about a ceasefire. Hailed as a “historic opportunity,” the meeting comes amid major regional upheaval across the Middle East, with Lebanon among the main arenas. Yet the effort to normalize relations between the two eastern Mediterranean countries within the Abraham Accords framework, even if successful, is highly unlikely to resolve the conflict or the core issues plaguing the civilians—particularly Lebanese—caught in the crossfire of Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hezbollah.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio opened the meeting with a brief statement, describing the talks as a “process” with “complexities” that he hoped would produce an outcome in which “the people of Lebanon can have the kind of future they deserve, and so that the people of Israel can live without fear of being struck by rocket attacks from a terrorist proxy of Iran.” Recognition of the difficulties plaguing the long-running issue is certainly welcome, but the overall statement ultimately indicates why the overall approach misses the mark.
The official statement released after the talks highlights this dynamic. That statement fails to recognize relatively basic facts on the ground, largely laying blame for today’s situation in Lebanon on Iran, the Lebanese government, and Hezbollah. While such statements are meant to be relatively tempered to garner buy-in from the negotiating parties, this text oversimplifies the issue while repeating the same Israel-friendly language typically pushed by US mediators in talks between the Israelis and other actors, failing to recognize the Israeli role as a driving force in the conflict.
Biased text of this sort is indicative of the parties’ thinking, as well as of the........