Trump’s Fickle Iran Policy |
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Trump’s Fickle Iran Policy
He is now a rudderless potentate.
More than anything, Trump has sought to project an aura of personal power and decisiveness. Whether through his ironclad rule over the Republican Party, condescending stance toward foreign emissaries, or ruthless exercise of military power, Trump is constantly reminding us of his extraordinary grasp of executive powers and his unique temperament to exploit them. Recent developments in the Middle East, however, have thrown into doubt his capacity to wield power effectively—with unpredictable and potentially perilous consequences.
Trump’s obsession with the public display of personal power was notably evident in his announcement of the January 2 US kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, to face trial in New York on drug charges. “This was one of the most stunning, effective, and powerful displays of American military might and competence in American history,” he said the next morning. “The United States military is the strongest and most fierce military on the planet by far,” he asserted—a distinction he attributed to his personal initiative. “Under the Trump administration, we are reasserting American power in a very powerful way,” he declared. “We had great dominance in my first term, and we have far greater dominance right now.”
Evidently propelled by these fantasies of domination, Trump concluded—or was led to believe—that a full-scale air and missile assault on Iran would produce a similar outcome, with even greater rewards for Washington.
According to an exhaustive investigation by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman of The New York Times, Trump was persuaded to undertake the assault by assurances of unqualified success provided by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad director David Barnea during a February 11 meeting in the White House Situation Room. An all-out US/Israeli attack, Trump was reportedly told, would almost certainly result in the collapse of Iran’s clerical regime, the destruction of its ballistic missile inventory, the elimination of its aid to proxy forces like Hamas and Hezbollah, and the permanent cessation of its drive to acquire nuclear weapons. Any potential Iranian ability to retaliate by striking US allies in the Persian Gulf region or blocking the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes—was said by the Israelis to constitute a negligible concern.
Although some US officials, including chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, warned of possible risks from an attack on Iran, Trump chose the path of promised glory, embracing the Israeli plan for a full-scale assault.
The president’s overweening self-confidence and undiluted faith in American military power was on full display when he announced the assault on February 28. “This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces,” he declared. “I built and rebuilt our military in my first administration and there is no military on earth even close to its power, strength or sophistication.”
As events soon demonstrated, however, the Iranian regime was fully prepared to challenge the strength and might of America’s armed forces—and, in doing so, deprived Trump of success in nearly all of his priority areas.
By firing one-way drones and ballistic missiles at US bases in the region and the energy facilities of US allies, the Iranians were able to inflict significant damage to US combat capabilities and to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, provoking a global energy crisis. Despite intense US and Israeli attacks, moreover, the regime did not collapse, nor was its ability to conduct drone and missile barrages fully eliminated. In countering those barrages, moreover, the United States consumed a large share of its inventory of advanced air-defense missiles, leaving US forces ill-prepared for any future confrontation with well-equipped Chinese or Russian forces. Most significantly, Iran’s supply of highly enriched uranium remained untouched, presumably still........