A turning point in the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia occurred on February 27, 2019, which is now known as Surprise Day. The events that took place on this day exposed India’s military weak­nesses, its use of false flag op­erations, and the weak links in its story. The Balakot deba­cle, which not only destroyed India’s hopes of creating a “new normal,” but also dem­onstrated the power of Pakistan’s armed forces and their conventional deterrent capabilities, is central to Sur­prise Day. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) broke through a web of deceit with Op­eration Swift Retort, which it carried out in response to India’s so-called sur­gical strike post Pulwama false flag op­eration. The leaked WhatsApp con­versations between former BARC CEO Partho Dasgupta and Indian presenter Arnab Goswami exposed the planned nature of the Pulwama assault and ex­posed the Modi government’s evil plan to falsely accuse Pakistan.

“The greater the stability of the stra­tegic balance of terror, the lower the stability of the overall balance at its lower levels of violence,” said Glenn Snyder in a 1961 writing. The argu­ment is that, in contrast to an unsta­ble strategic balance, neither party will be as constrained about starting a con­ventional conflict or using restricted nuclear weapons if they both recognise that they lack a “full first-strike capa­bility.” Beginning with the Kargil con­flict of 1999, and the subsequent 2001- 2002 and 2008 India-Pakistan crises, the stability-instability paradox has been at play, but not more than in the 2019 Pulwama crisis.

The border clashes between India and Pakistan, which are often seen as regu­lar, took a dramatic turn following In­dia’s decision to intensify its reaction to the Pulwama incident. Using stand-off weaponry for ground targets across the LOC in Kashmir........

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