Pakistan has a new roadmap for water security. The Planning Commission’s National Water Security framework under URAAN Pakistan is ambitious: by 2029, it aims to raise farm-gate water availability from 58.3 to 79 million acre-feet, increase storage from 15.3 to 23.5 MAF and improve irrigation efficiency from 40 to 70 per cent. Its indicative federal financing requirement is around $18 billion over FY2027-36. Much of this is welcome. But before setting another round of targets, we should establish where we stand against the ones we set eight years ago.

In April 2018, Pakistan adopted its first National Water Policy. Not since the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord had the federation and provinces agreed on water in this way. After successive rounds of consultation, the Council of Common Interests approved it unanimously, and the prime minister and all four chief ministers signed the Pakistan Water Charter. The policy also carried numbers. Storage was to increase. Conveyance losses were to fall by a third. Water-use efficiency was to improve by at least 30 per cent. Real-time monitoring of river flows, including telemetry, was to be completed before the end of 2021. Water was to receive at least 10 per cent of Federal PSDP in 2018-19, rising gradually to 20 per cent by 2030. Eight years have passed. Let us return to those numbers.

A problem appears before measurement can even begin. Some of the new framework’s starting numbers need explaining. Its water balance begins with 104 MAF of canal diversions, subtracts 46.7 MAF in conveyance and farm losses, and arrives at 58.3 MAF at the farm gate. But 104 minus 46.7 is 57.3. One MAF has appeared in the arithmetic. More important is the 104 itself. The official IRSA record does not support treating 104 MAF as representative of current canal withdrawals. Average annual withdrawals over the post-Accord series are about 93.5 MAF. In 2024-25, they were 89.9 MAF. If 104 MAF is an older........

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