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It May Just Be the Beginning

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yesterday

The emerging Pakistan–Saudi Arabia–Turkiye security understanding deserves to be examined beyond the immediate headlines. What began as cooperation among three important regional states could potentially evolve into something considerably more consequential: the nucleus of an indigenous regional security architecture designed by regional countries to address regional security challenges.

That distinction is important. For decades, the security architecture stretching from South Asia through the Gulf and into the Middle East has depended heavily upon external powers, bilateral security guarantees and temporary coalitions created in response to individual crises. The Makkah Agreement potentially offers a different trajectory, one in which regional states gradually develop greater responsibility for their own collective security while continuing to maintain constructive relationships with major global powers.

There are already indications that the framework may not remain confined to its original participants. Turkiye has signalled the possibility of Egypt joining at a subsequent stage, while Pakistan has indicated that the arrangement remains open to expansion. Azerbaijan is also increasingly being discussed as a potential participant. Reported interest from Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Yemen and Somalia, if eventually translated into formal participation, would further enlarge the strategic geography of such a framework.

The significance of this prospective expansion is geographical as much as numerical. Consider the map. Pakistan provides the framework with a major South Asian military power positioned near the Arabian Sea and the approaches to the Gulf. Saudi Arabia sits at the centre of the Arabian Peninsula, overlooking both the Gulf and the Red Sea. Turkiye connects the Middle East with Europe, the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. Egypt would bring the Suez Canal, the Eastern Mediterranean and the northern Red Sea into the equation. Azerbaijan would extend the framework towards the Caucasus and the Caspian region, while Somalia and........

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