American politics has a habit of introducing future contenders long before voters have much say in their ascent. The latest example is the orchestrated push to elevate J.D. Vance as the Republican nominee for 2028. This effort is being championed by Turning Point USA—the MAGA-aligned youth organization once built by the late Charlie Kirk and now, at least in appearance, headed by his widow, Erica Kirk. Her recent appearance on Megyn Kelly’s program removed any ambiguity about the direction of the organization. She confirmed almost with a sense of inevitability that the groundwork for a Vance 2028 campaign is 

already in motion.

However, US political history warns against considering any candidate as inevitable, years before the first primary vote is cast. In 2005, Hillary Clinton was assumed to be the inevitable Democratic nominee when Barack Obama first appeared on the national scene. Following the 2008 election, many predicted Mitt Romney would lead the Republican Party in 2012. In 2013, Donald Trump was still more of a joke than a political force. And even Joe Biden, whom many had written off in 2017, went on to win the Democratic nomination in 2020. American political momentum seldom follows a straight path, and attempts to predict results frequently fail due to unanticipated circumstances.

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The MAGA narrative portrays Vance as the natural heir to Donald Trump, a populist figure ready to continue the battle against the establishment. This image, however, conceals a more complex truth. Vance’s real patron is not Trump but Peter Thiel. Trump himself was reportedly........

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