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Trump’s Iran War Could Be an Even Bigger Catastrophe Than Iraq

Remarkably, Trump seems on the verge of outdoing George W. Bush in reckless, stupid militarism.

Donald Trump waves as he leaves passing a portrait of former President George W. Bush in the Grand Foyer of the White House during the Congressional Ball, Thursday, December 11, 2025.

Donald Trump has always portrayed himself as an opponent of “ forever wars.” But he is in the midst of cooking up a military disaster in Iran that could rival in size and scale the Iraq War unleashed by George W. Bush in 2003.

Hitherto, Trump has appeared mindful of the US public’s limited appetite for costly and protracted wars post-Iraq. Like Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the other two presidents who followed Bush, Trump has favored quick and easy displays of violence: drone attacks, assassinations, short bombing campaigns, and kidnappings. This has been Trump’s preferred mode of warfare in the Caribbean, Venezuela, Syria, and elsewhere.

But Trump seems to have much bigger plans for Iran. The New York Times reports that “two aircraft carrier groups and dozens of fighter jets, bombers and refueling aircraft are now massing within striking distance of Iran.” This vast armada suggests a campaign far larger than any quick strike. Kelley Vlahos of Responsible Statecraft notes that there are now 108 air tankers (used for refueling) in the region. This compares with 149 refuelers deployed during the first phase of the Iraq War in 2003.

Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, observes that the current Air Force surge into the Middle East “represents 40-50% of the deployable US air power in the world. Think air power on the order of the 1991 and 2003 Iraq war. And growing. Never has the US deployed this much force against a potential enemy and not launched strikes.”

Pape’s invocation of the two Iraq Wars underscores the continuity of imperialist US policy in the Middle East. But there have been significant changes in how that policy is carried out. The 1991 Gulf War was justified as a response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, which was rightly seen as a violation of international law. Whatever the........

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